ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Precipitation Prediction with AREM Numerical Model in Sichuan Flood Season in 2005
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Abstract:
Using AREM model, a real-time precipitation prediction in Sichuan flood season in 2005 is made. The results are as follows: 1.the performance of AREM model is better than ETA model which is operation model in Chendu region meteorological center and TS score values of AREM model is higher than that of T213 model. 2.The elements such as height, temperature and vortex are predictable. But the predictability of the elements such as ground temperature, vapor contents and vapor flux divergence of the whole atmosphere level is lower. 3. AREM model has prediction ability to five local heavy rain happed in Sichuan flood season in 2005, but still are there the differences between the precipitation prediction of the model and observation. The intensity of precipitation of the model is weaker than the observation.
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