ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Verification of Prediction Capability of NWP Products and Objective Forecast Methods
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Abstract:
Based on the products of JMH,MM5,NMC,MOS and forecaster's subjective forecast, precipitation and temperature prediction in Shaoxing City are verified in terms of natural weather season,grade and main synoptic system.The results show that the TS score of JMA and NMC is better from light rain to middle rain,but the TS score of all products is not satisfactory for heavy rain prediction.When the rain is caused by cold front,cyclone or typhoon,the rainfall forecast skill is higher than warm front or subtropical high.As for temperature prediction, MM5 is lower systematically and MOS responds score varies with season.
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