The Trend forecast Method of Air Quality in Winter 2003

The trend forecast of air quality of winter is made based on the climatic character and the weather background and elements from January to July. Combined with both methods of the short-term climatic forecast and the stitistical analysis of the weather elements and the air quality forecast, the tendency of air pollution during the winter from November in 2003 to March in 2004 was attenpted. That is, at first, the pollution potential and the meteorological parameter is established with the statistic and analytical result of the ground weather background and pollution-weather conditions in analogical years matching the heating season of 2003 on the basis of the climate prediction of the winter. Then, the day-by-day consistency of aerial pollutant is calculated by the forecast equation of aerial pollutant consistency. Finally, the air-pollution trend prediction of heating days is acquired after generally analyzing the results of climate forecast in 2003 winter and daily air quality.

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