Wind Forecasts with Multi-time scale and Multi-space Spectrum Analogy

The synthesis waves of ultra-long and long waves in different latitudes are calculated based on the grid-data of the 500hPa geopotential height and 850hPa temperature from 1975 to 2004, as a data base for wind forecasting. A forecasting model of multi-time scale and multi-space spectrum analogy is developed together with a new concept of analogue deviation on basis of the principal of harmonic analysis and a combination with coefficient analogy and distance analogy. Test results show that the model works well for the last two years and proved a very useful reference for the forecasts of wind that obey the geostrophic relation. The model, which involves factors of local topography and geography, provides a simple method to forecast the wind direction and velocity under large-scale weather background. As the multi-time scale and multi-space spectrum analogy takes into account of the spatial variety of physical fields as well as the continuous temporal processes, it is meaningful for medium-range weather events. The method needs to be improved in the future for forecasts of the strong winds produced by cold air at high latitudes or tropical cyclone, and other supplementary methods are required in condition of meso-scale system or thunder storms.

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