ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Verification of Subjective and Objective Track Forecast of Tropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in 2002
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Abstract:
By using of all subjective and objective model track prediction products from different countries in operational tropical cyclone forecasting in the National Meteorological Center, verification of subjective and objective track prediction of tropical cyclones in 2002 is made. The results show that in total the subjective predictions are better than the objective, but the prediction capacity of the objective products has closed to the subjective, and is better than the subjective sometime, especially for 48-72h predictions. The results show that global models are better than typhoon models among the objective products. The results also indicate that the use of numeric tropical cyclone track prediction is helpful to improve the operational tropical cyclone forecasting.
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