A Test for Real-Time Precipitation Forecast during 2002-Flood Season with AREM Model

During 2002-flood season, the Avanced Rgional E-grid η-coordinates Model(AREM) developed by the “973” Program (China Heavy Rainfall) is run two times every day(BLT 08:00 and BLT 20:00) to carry out real time numerical weather forecast in the Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan. Real time forecast shows that AREM model is suitable to the computer condition and has certain forecast ability for summer precipitation. It shows that the scores of rainfall forecast for East China comes to the first, and the threat scores of 24 hours rainfall forecast made at 08:00 BLT are 0.578, 0.282, 0.144, and 0.062 for the 24 hours rainfall more than 0.1, 10, 25 and 50 mm respectively.The forecast results of several heavy rains in the period of 2002 main flood season show that the model has predicted the Meiyu rains, the heavy rains in the Changjiang valleys, South China and North China well, and the model has certain forecast abilities for the position and movement of the rain band and the intensity, lasting and weakening of rainfall.

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