Analysis of Gravely Unsuccessful Forecasting for a Relatively Heavy Precipitation

A first unsuccessful forecast for a relatively heavy precipitation in rainy season is synthetically analyzed. The result shows that the main reasons are the weather systems moved quickly eastward with shallow wet layer, and obvious downward movement in the foregoing of front in Guangxi. Consequently, it is very necessary to analysis the moving speed of the weather system and the obligatory physics condition of precipitation with forecast guide line and numerical forecast products.

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