China Operational Short-range Climate Prediction System

The first-generation of the Operational Short-range Climate Prediction System in China consists of data base,dynamic climatic model system,climatic monitoring and diagnostic system,short-range climate prediction system,climatic impact and assessment system and climatic application and service system. The researches during the development of the system have revealed that the stronger signals for the climate anomalies in China are El Nio event,plateau snow cover,and monsoon. The global and regional dynamic climate model system,which includes T63L16 global general circulation model,high-resolution regional climate model,T63L30 global oceanic model and sea-ice model,the Pacific and the India Ocean high-resolution oceanic model and El Nino prediction model,is developed. The operational and application system supported by the high performance computers and network can supply the short-range climatic information,as well as the impacts of the climatic changes on the water resources,agriculture,forestry,communication,electric power,and so on,and supply the service to policy makers. It shows that the system has a certain skill. The prediction accuracy after using the system from 1998,as a whole,is above 6%—10% higher than that in the 20 years before 1998. But the climate prediction for regional severe floods has shown a low skill and needs to be improved.

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