Study on Drought Forecast in Liaoning Province

Based on the annual precipitation data of five meteorological observation stations (Shenyang,Dalian,Dandong,Yingkou,Chaoyang) in Liaoning Province from 1953 to 2001,precipitation set is set up,the precipitation variation is analyzed. Annual precipitation showed an obvious reducing trend. According to the set,a drought catastrophe set is rebuilt. With the grey system model GM(1,1),the drought forecast problem in the five areas is discussed. The test show that the forecast effect is prefer with the data from 1996 to 2001.

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