ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Verification of NMC Subjective and Objective PrecipitationPrediction during the Main Flood Season in 2002
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Abstract:
The rainfall prediction products of forecaster and NWP (HLAFS, HLAFS 0 25,T106 and T213) of NMC are verified and assessed by statistical method for the main flood season of 2002,which include the prediction of whole country and eight areas. The results show that the TS score of forecaster prediction is the best from light rain to severe rain for the whole country. The second is T213.The third is HLAFS 0 25(except for severe storm).The rainfall forecast skill of T213 and HLAFS 0 25 is higher than one of T106 and HLAFS 0 5.It turns out that the forecast skill of advanced models have improved. The TS score of forecaster prediction of light rain in 2002 is higher than that in 2001. The TS score of forcaster torrential rain and heavy rain forecast also increases for 24 hours. The result of T213 is higher from moderate rain to heavy rain than that in 2001.The other results is same or less than that in 2001. The verification for the eight areas shows both the subjective and objective prediction in the south of China are better than those in the north of China for the moderate rain and light rain. The prediction of forecaster is much better than NWP in the south of China for heavy rain and torrential rain. Nevertheless, T213 is better than the others for the North. The torrential rain prediction of HLAFS and HLAFS 0 25 is super than others in Northwest.
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