An Objective Analogue Model for Medium-range Weather ForecastConsidered Synthetic Evaluation by Multi-criterion
An objective analogue model for medium range weather forecast considered synthetic evaluation by multi criterion is developed. By using filtered parameters of atmosphere general circulation which resemble medium range weather in the spatial temporal resolution, some objective resembling criterions are built up. Through defining the non linear resembling indexes, with which the resemblance between historical and forecasting samples is evaluated under multi criterion, then some resembling samples are got from historical samples in forward and backward extend time intervals. Synthesizing the historical resembling samples, then the medium range weather prediction is formed. The model inspection and prediction tests show the model is able to predicting skills.