Based on the medium range classified circulation pattern,the atmospheric circulation pattern and main weather system which affected on the first soaking rain in Ningxia during 1971—2000 are carefully analyzed.Moreover,the characteristics of average circulation pattern between the pentad when it rained and its previous five days are calculated and analyzed.At last,the medium range notional models under the main circulation patterns for forecasting the first soaking rain are established by using the mean global per five days reanalyzed data of NCEP/NCAR during 1979—1999.