Application of Products of Monthly Dynamic Extended Forecast to Three Gorges Engineering

Products of monthly dynamic extended range forecast (DERF) on Three Gorges Engineering were evaluated by using three score methods.The skills of monthly DERF is generally better than that of persistence and climate forecast.The products of DERF can be used as a reference in the serve of Three Gorges Engineering.Furthermore,a blending method of dynamical and statistical approaches was presented,which has established a relationship between monthly precipitation anomaly and monthly circulation.The relationship between monthly precipitation forecast equation and its coefficients was determined by using 500hPa potential height anomaly of ensemble dynamical extended range forecast (DERF) and observed precipitation.The results show that the method is useful in forecasting monthly rainfall anomaly using potential height of ensemble DERF through precipitation forecast tests in 1999.

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