On the basis of the classification of rainy or dry summer,monthly OLR data,observed by NOAA satellite,were used to analyze the convective differences of rainy and dry summer.It is found that the negative anomaly is dominant in winter and spring before wet summer,while the positive anomaly is mainly appeared previous to dry summer in tropical ocean areas.Forecast models were established by using OLR in Jan.and Apr.in four tropical ocean areas,and the models based on Apr.OLR in the tropical west Pacific and the Indian Ocean show better ability of prediction.