The Application of EOF-CCA Model to Seasonal Rainfall Predicton in Shandong Province

The principle of EOF-CCA model and its steps of development were briefly introduced.The inevitability and superiority were illustrated when the two methods EOF and CCA were used in the combination form of EOF-CCA in the prediction of short-range climatic change.It was also pointed out that with this model another climatic field based on one or more climatic fields could be forecasted.Seasonal precipitation of 13 stations in Shandong province was the forecasted field and previous monthly average geopotential height fields at 500hPa over northern hemisphere and east Asia were used as factor fields.Thus the EOF-CCA model was set up.Finally the model′s historical fit and prediction effect were assessed,which shows that the model has rather good ability in forecasting seasonal precipitation and can be used in the operation.

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