Through general analysis of the data of the plateau surface temperature,the tropic sea surface temperature and the Southern Hemisphere cyclones,four predictors were picked out experientially.The four factors are the Lhasa surface air temperature anomaly in January,the equator east west Pacific surface temperature gradient in April,the equator India Ocean surface temperature rising extent in April and the count of southern hemisphere low latitude cyclone in January.They can predict the serious waterlogging accurately during the early flood season in Guangxi.It′s pointed out that the plateau thermal regime;the tropic sea action and the atmosphere baroclinicity of the low latitude in Southern Hemisphere are the important factors that affect the rainfall of Guangxi during the early flood season.Also,the forecast and the physical mechanism were analyzed and discussed.