The Subtropical High Forecast Verification and Interpretation of the NWP in Summer

Using the NWP products of the T106 model and the ECMWF from June to August 1998, the forecasting ability of the subtropical high and the confidence of the products are estimated. The parameters and the characteristic variables calculated from NWP products are analyzed. The products are interpreted for the significant weather events in the operational forecasting. The result shows that the ECMWF has powerful forecasting ability of the change tendency of subtropical high and significant guiding means for the medium range forecasting of the significant weather process and the rain area. The T106 products at the lead time 96 h are believable. The probabilities of the T106 product drop sharply when the lead time beyond 120 h and this is an important aspect of that should be improved the model.

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