Study on the Creation of Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Analysis:A Review

he Necessity for the study on creation of climate change scenarios is analyzed in the light of the simple review of the recent progress in the impact studies of climate change on agriculture,i.e. understanding of the difficulties in coupling General Circulation Models (GCMs) with impact models,and knowledge of climatic and crop yield variability. Consequently,future climate impact studies should become more focused on scenarios' construction in order to get the true results. The creating techniques of climate change scenarios,including historical instrumentally based scenarios,paleoclimatic analogue scenarios,arbitrary scenarios,scenarios from GCMs' outputs and synthetically generated scenarios from Weather Geneator (WGEN),etc. are elaborated as well as their implication,requirement,advantages,disadvantages and usage scopes. Especially,the down scaling techniques in the GCMs based scenarios and the fundamentals of WGEN are discussed in detail. This revie addresses a promising method to produce reasonable climate change scenarios with a high spatial and temporal resolution by combining the information from GCMs simulation and WGEN,thus incorporating climatic variability either,and it should be developed in the future.

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