ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Test and Anaiysis of the Forecast Ability with Regard to Tropical Cyclone Track of two kinds of Numerical Forecast
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Abstract:
Using live data of ten tropical cyclones and 500hPa upper weather charts,which effected the South China Sea from June to October in 1995,the forecast ability with regard to tropical cyclone track of Japan's 24hr surface numerical forecast and Europe Center of Meteorological Weather Forecast (ECMWF) 500hPa numerical weather forecast were tested and analysed. The results in-dicate: (1) Janpan's 24hr surface numerical weather forecast has some forecast ability to tropical cyclone track tendency,and it is better to the stable track of tropical cyclone,but not good to the sudden changing and recuruing tropical cyclone; (2)ECMWF 500hPa numerical weather forecast has good forecast ability to tropical cyclone track. It can forecast tropical cyclone moving tendency , recurving and sudden changing, landing place efficieritly, and has good reference worth in practice.
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