The correlation analysis between the forest fire data in Shennongjia area and the monthly mean temperature over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1970 to 1991 has beed conducted. The long-term forecasting model of forest fire occurrence in this area from March to May is established. Varification of the actual situation in 1992 and 1993 suggests that the effect of this model is proved to be successful.