ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
The Research on Annual Drought and Long-term Flood Prediction by CAR Model
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Abstract:
The time series of annual drought and flood in Ankang prefecture , Shanxi province is of a dynamic system. Using the controlled auto-regression model(CAR), a special CARMA model, the system is modelled. The CAR prediction model of three controlled variables has been obtained,and it is applied to predict annual drought/flood tendency in Ankang region. Its accuracy is very well.
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