The Study of Severe Convection Weather Forecast by the Method of Tracking Echo Centroids

By using digital radar echo data of 13 severe convection affecting Beijing region from June to August during 1987-1991,objective movement forecasting of the radar echo is derived for squall lines entirety and piece echo affecting forecasting region of different intensity with the method of tracking echo centroids. The results show that the method of tracking echo centroids has a fairly good capability of linear objective forecasting to radar echo of the severe convection. The effect of the piece echo movement forecasting is better than that of squall lines entirety,but the movement forecasting effect of non-attenuation echo is the best of them. At last real examples are verified.

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