A Dynamic-Statistical Model for the Assessment of Effects of Climatic Change on Crop Yield

According to principles of integral regression,a dynamic statistical model is developed for the effects of climatic change on crop yield in the time scale of 10 days. The mode opens a new way for agricultural service of climatic influence assessment,because of its continuation and promptness. In order to make the model more suitable for practical use,the following methods are used during its establishment:three term crop yield forecast model,diagnostic analysis for special factors, and choice of best integral regression equation. And satisfactory results are achieved in model test.

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