The Use of Fuzzy Comprehensive Policy-making Method in the Forecast of the Occurence Period of Overwintering Striped Rice Borer
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Abstract:
According to the historical data and literature about the occurence of striped rice borer in Jiangle County, Fujian Province, with the extreme microtherm from November of last year to February of this year and the. effective accumulative temperature being equal to 12℃ or higher,the rainy days in March,the frost days from October of last year to March of this year, the extreme microtherm in March, the height period of the occurence of last generation of the snout moth as a forecasting basis,Fuzzy Comprehensive Policy-making Model is used to forecast thehigh pened of overwiniering striped rice borer. In that case,the rate of fitting with the historical cases would reach 96. 67 per centum. And the precision would be up to I class every three days,which enhances three times of the precision of the progressive regression analysis.