The Analysis and Forecast for Water Resource in Beijing Tianjin Tangshan Area

The analysis is made for the relationship between the water resource in Beijing Tianjin Tangshan area and the summer precipition over the forty stations in the Haihe river basin and the Luanhe river Basin. It shows that interannual changes of water resource and precipitation are often in coincidence. The precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Luanhe river, the basin of the Yongdinghe river, the upper reaches of the Daqinghe river and the basin of the Fuyangxinhe river have important effects on the water resource in this area.Therelation equation of water resource and the precipitation over the important area has been made,the multiple correlation coefficient is 0. 96. The water resource in this area obviousely decreased decade by decade, especially the inflow water decreased extremely under the influence of climatic change. This suggests that we should pay more attention to this problem.The forecast methods for water resource in this ares are studied. It is shown, the south branch of winter jetstream in Asia and the sea surface temperature(SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be used as reliable forecast parameters for the water resource, and theforecast equations are made by these parameters.

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