Improvement of analog model and its application to typhoon track predicton

The operational improvements in HURRAN model are made. These are (1) give the different duration of action according to concrete conditions and (2) give the prediction track and its probability ellipse in accordance with weight score, which can be decided based on the general circulation and forecast experiences.The effect of the improved model is evident. The errors of typhoon movement di-rection prediction is much smaller than HURRAN model, but the errors of speed is still bigger around a turn in typhoon track.

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