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气象:2016,42(10):1184-1196
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“8·23—24”上海远距离台风大暴雨影响分析
(上海中心气象台,上海 200030)
Analysis on a Tropical Cyclone Remote Rain Event in Shanghai in 23-24 August 2015
(Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030)
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投稿时间:2015-11-01    修订日期:2016-06-08
中文摘要: 利用常规天气资料、物理量场资料、雷达资料、云图资料以及主要业务模式预报资料等,对2015年8月23和24日上海地区大暴雨进行了分析。分析表明这是一次远距离台风与北方扩散南下冷空气共同影响产生在上海及周边地区的大暴雨过程。1515号台风天鹅北侧外围的偏东风急流为强降水区提供了源源不断的水汽;北方扩散南下冷空气与台风北侧外围的东风急流汇合使得辐合抬升得到加强;各业务模式的检验表明,由于无法精确预报台风的位置、台风外围的偏东风气流影响的强度和地区以及冷空气强度等,大部分业务模式无论是降水落区、强度及最强降水时段预报均存在较大的误差。在模式预报有误差的情况下,要重视实时资料应用,及时做出短时暴雨预警。
Abstract:Based on routine weather data, meteorological elements fields, wind profiler radar data, satellite cloud images and operational numerical forecast data, we have analyzed a heavy rain event that occurred in Shanghai in 23-24 August 2015. The results show that it was caused by combined action of a remote tropical cyclone Goni and cool air spreading southwards from north area; the circulation of Goni provided the plentiful supply of water vapor and energy required for the event; and the convergence of cool wind and strong easterly jet enhanced vertical motion of moisture air. Verification indicates that there are remarkable bias in rain hit areas, intensity and timing for most operational numerical forecast, which possibly come from the errors in calculation of TC position, strength and location of easterly jet around TC and strength of cool air, etc. Under such situation we should devote much attention to the application of real time observation with the aim of issuing available short term early warning of heavy rain.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306010和GYHY201306030)共同资助
引用文本:
曹晓岗,王慧,2016.“8·23—24”上海远距离台风大暴雨影响分析[J].气象,42(10):1184-1196.
CAO Xiaogang,WANG Hui,2016.Analysis on a Tropical Cyclone Remote Rain Event in Shanghai in 23-24 August 2015[J].Meteor Mon,42(10):1184-1196.