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气象:2016,42(4):507-513
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2015年秋季我国气候异常及暖湿成因分析
(国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Possible Causes for the Warmer and Wetter Autumn in 2015 in China
(Beijing Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2015-12-28    修订日期:2016-03-15
中文摘要: 2015年秋季,全国平均气温较常年同期偏高,降水量偏多明显,为1951年以来同期第三高值,我国总体呈现“暖湿”的特征,但南北方降水特征有明显差异。受水汽条件不同的影响,华南地区为持续性降水,而华北表现为阵性降水。诊断分析表明,华南的持续性降水偏多与超强厄尔尼诺和赤道印度洋偏暖的共同作用有关。赤道东太平洋和赤道印度洋地区海温偏高,加强了西太平洋地区低层的反气旋环流异常,造成西太平洋副热带高压偏强偏西。受副热带高压西侧异常南风的引导,来自南海和西太平洋的异常水汽向华南输送,造成了秋季华南持续降水偏多。而受中高纬度环流经向度偏大的影响,冷空气在华北活跃,配合东路和南路水汽的阶段性输送,则造成了华北的降水偏多。
Abstract:During the autumn of 2015, the averaged surface air temperature in China was above normal. The mean precipitation in China was much more than normal, ranked as the 3rd since 1951. Thus, the autumn 2015 in China generally featured “warm and wet”. However, the temporal evolution of the precipitation of South and North China exhibited different characteristics. Driven by the different water vapor conditions, the South China was characterized by persistent precipitation, while North China featured several heavy rainfall events. By diagnosing the circulation anomaly, it was found that, the persistent anomalous rainfall over South China was associated with the forcing of the super strong El Ni〖AKn~〗o and warmer tropical Indian Ocean. The continued anomalous warming over the tropical eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean together strengthened the western Pacific subtropical high and pushed it westward. The anomalous southerlies along the western side of western Pacific subtropical high guided more water vapor from the South China Sea and the western Pacific to South China, causing the wetter autumn there. Meanwhile, the amplitudes of ridges and troughs in mid latitude regions were larger than normal, causing several strong cold air processes over North China, along with the water vapor transport from the East China Sea and South China Sea, and further leading to the anomalous precipitation in North China.
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基金项目:中国气象局气候研究开放实验室开放课题青年基金2015年度资助项目和中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015Z11)共同资助
引用文本:
聂羽,孙冷,李清泉,马丽娟,2016.2015年秋季我国气候异常及暖湿成因分析[J].气象,42(4):507-513.
NIE Yu,SUN Leng,LI Qingquan,MA Lijuan,2016.Possible Causes for the Warmer and Wetter Autumn in 2015 in China[J].Meteor Mon,42(4):507-513.