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投稿时间：2011-02-13 修订日期：2011-05-16
投稿时间：2011-02-13 修订日期：2011-05-16
中文摘要: 采用WRF模式MET检验包中MODE方法，对BJ RUC降水预报产品进行客观检验。使用2008—2009年汛期北京自动站逐小时降水数据，挑选出2个及以上站3小时累计降水≥50 mm的局地强降水个例及主要降水时段，根据其环流形势及影响系统进行分型，并将其归纳出三种型：西来槽型、低涡型、切变线型。分别针对这三种型中强降水个例的主要降水时段进行检验。在检验中使用BJ RUC模式降水预报产品，实况数据使用与强降水时段相对应的雷达QPE降水估计产品。检验结果表明，BJ RUC模式降水漏报比空报造成的误差更为明显，对移动较明显的西来槽型降水预报能力较差，相似度评分与TS评分没有本质区别，但它能给模式应用和模式开发人员提供更多有用信息。此项工作能为该模式应用及模式改进提供参考依据。
中文关键词: MODE方法， RUC降水， 检验， 环流形势， 分型
Abstract:Based on the MODE method in the MET packet of WRF, the forecasting abilities of the numerical precipitation products of the BJ RUC model were objectively verified. Using hourly rainfall observations of automatic weather stations in the flood season from 2008 to 2009, heavy rainfall examples and its main precipitation period were selected, in which the accumulated precipitation of more than two stations is larger than 50 mm in three hours, then according to their circulation patterns and influence systems, these cases are divided into three types, the west coming trough, the low pressure vortex, and the shear line. The emphasis of verification is put on the main periods in the heavy rainfall and the QPE products of the radar are regarded as live data. The results show that the misses of precipitation from BJ RUC model are much more than false alarm, the forecast rainfall intensity is weaker than observation and the BJ RUC model is not good at forecasting precipitation by the west coming trough. This work is aimed at providing references for application and improvement of the BJ RUC model.
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基金项目:国家“十一五”科技支撑计划重点项目（2008BAC37B05）和北京市科学技术委员会绿色通道项目（Z090506016609001）共同资助
引用文本：
尤凤春,王国荣,郭 锐,魏 东,2011.MODE方法在降水预报检验中的应用分析[J].气象,37(12):1498-1503.
You Fengchun,Wang Guorong,Guo Rui,Wei Dong,2011.The Application Analysis of MODE Method to the Rainfall Forecast Test[J].Meteor Mon,37(12):1498-1503.
尤凤春,王国荣,郭 锐,魏 东,2011.MODE方法在降水预报检验中的应用分析[J].气象,37(12):1498-1503.
You Fengchun,Wang Guorong,Guo Rui,Wei Dong,2011.The Application Analysis of MODE Method to the Rainfall Forecast Test[J].Meteor Mon,37(12):1498-1503.