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投稿时间：2010-03-13
投稿时间：2010-03-13
中文摘要: 数值天气预报技术与能力在不断地发展与提高，集合预报是数值预报发展中的一个热点。集合预报产品所提供的大量预报信息，需要通过合适的产品释用处理来传递给用户，因此对集合预报产品进行解释与应用是实现其实用价值的一个重要环节。选取武汉站00:00 UTC地面气温（T2m ）作为预报量，利用其历史观测资料及2008年1月份TIGGE资料中的NCEP 120 h集合预报资料，基于单一数值预报产品的贝叶斯统计处理技术——贝叶斯输出处理器（Bayesian Processor of Output, BPO），对NCEP集合预报各成员进行BPO建模，获得了各成员贝叶斯概率预报，研究了NCEP集合预报各成员在2008年1月份对武汉站00:00 UTC T2m 的120 h预报能力差异。基于各成员有效信息评分（Informativeness Score, IS），尝试对各成员贝叶斯概率预报进行融合，获得了代表NCEP集合预报不确定性的集成贝叶斯概率预报。初步试验结果表明，NCEP集合预报各成员具有不同的预报性能，各成员贝叶斯概率预报之间存在较明显差异，这种基于BPO的集合预报产品释用方法，可以将集合预报不确定性定量化为一个集成贝叶斯概率预报，从而实现集合预报的概率化。
Abstract:Numerical weather prediction (NWP) techniques and ability are developing constantly and the ensemble prediction is a very important part of NWP. An appropriate interpretation process is needed to convey the mass information provided by ensemble prediction to users, thus the interpretation and application of ensemble prediction products are important to realize their utilitarian value. The 00:00 UTC surface temperature at Wuhan Station is selected as the predictand, and its historical observation data as well as NCEP 120 h ensemble prediction data from TIGGE data during January 2008 are used to establish BPO model for each NCEP ensemble member based on a statistical process technique, which is the Bayesian Processor of Output (BPO). The member Bayesian probabilistic forecast is obtained and the performance difference among members is studied. The member Bayesian probabilistic forecasts are integrated into an integrated Bayesian probabilistic forecast which quantifies the ensemble prediction uncertainty according to the weights depending on member Informativeness Scores. The analysis of initial experiment results shows that the performances of ensemble members are different from each other, so are the member Bayesian probabilistic forecast. This new interpretation scheme based on BPO can quantify the forecasting uncertainty of an ensemble prediction, and then a Bayesian integrated probabilistic forecast can be obtained.
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基金项目:公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200706001, GYHY200906007）;国家自然科学基金面上项目(41075035)共同资助
引用文本：
陈法敬,矫梅燕,陈静,2011.一种温度集合预报产品释用方法的初步研究[J].气象,37(1):14-20.
CHEN Fajing,JIAO Meiyan,CHEN Jing,2011.A New Scheme of Calibration of Ensemble Forecast Products Based on Bayesian Processor of Output and Its Study Results for Temperature Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,37(1):14-20.
陈法敬,矫梅燕,陈静,2011.一种温度集合预报产品释用方法的初步研究[J].气象,37(1):14-20.
CHEN Fajing,JIAO Meiyan,CHEN Jing,2011.A New Scheme of Calibration of Ensemble Forecast Products Based on Bayesian Processor of Output and Its Study Results for Temperature Prediction[J].Meteor Mon,37(1):14-20.