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投稿时间:2025-04-28 修订日期:2026-06-28
投稿时间:2025-04-28 修订日期:2026-06-28
中文摘要: 2024年8月4日,山东省德州市出现大暴雨,其中武城站突破日降水量和最大小时降水量历史极值。利用加密自动气象观测站、多普勒天气雷达、风廓线雷达及ERA5再分析和GDAS资料,结合HYSPLIT模式揭示了其后向传播型对流系统得以长时间维持并产生极端降水的多尺度物理机制。结果表明,此次过程发生在大尺度后倾槽与副热带高压对峙的环流背景下,低空急流(LLJ)和超低空急流(ULLJ)持续将来自南海与孟加拉湾的充沛水汽输送至鲁西北,在锋前暖区构建了高能、高温、高湿的极端不稳定环境。降水形成的冷池出流与环境暖湿气流形成准静止辐合线,其与LLJ的时空脉动相耦合,共同驱动新生对流单体持续向西南方向传播,直接导致极端强降水。能量的动态重建是系统维持的关键:尽管降水消耗不稳定能量,但ULLJ持续的暖湿平流输送使得对流有效位能得以快速重建并维持峰值,形成了能量输送—对流消耗—能量重建的正反馈维持机制,导致后向传播型强降水的持续发生。
中文关键词: 大暴雨,后向传播,低空急流,水汽追踪,能量重建
Abstract:On 4 August 2024, heavy rainstorm occurred at Wucheng Station in Dezhou, Shandong Province, breaking the historical records for both daily precipitation and maximum hourly precipitation at the station. Utilizing the observation data from automatic weather stations, Doppler weather radar and wind-profiling radar, as well as ERA5 reanalysis data and GDAS data, combined with the HYSPLIT model, this study reveals the multi-scale physical mechanisms that enabled the long-lasting backward propagating convective system and the extreme precipitation it brought. The results indicate that this event occurred under a large-scale circulation pattern characterized by a rearward-tilted trough confronting the subtropical high. Low level jet (LLJ) and ultra-low-level jet (ULLJ) persistently transported abundant water vapor from the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal to northwestern Shandong, establishing an extremely unstable environment with high energy, high temperature and high humidity within the warm sector ahead of surface front. The cold pool outflow generated by precipitation interacted with the ambient warm, moist airflow, forming a quasi-stationary convergence line. Coupled with temporal and spatial pulsations of the LLJ, this interaction continuously drove new convective cells to propagate southwestward, directly causing the extreme heavy precipitation. The dynamic reconstruction of energy was the key to maintaining the system. Rainfall consumed unstable energy, but the persistent warm, moist advection transported by ULLJ allowed convective available potential energy to be rapidly rebuilt and maintained at its peak. Thus, a positive feedback self-sustaining mechanism of “energy transport-convection consumption-energy reconstruction” was formed, and it was this mechanism that led to the sustained occurrence of the back-propagating heavy precipitation.
keywords: heavy rainstorm, backward propagation, low-level jet, water vapor tracking, energy reconstruction
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基金项目:黄河流域气象联合开放基金(HHJJ2026M02)、山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2025LQX008、ZR2024LQX006和ZR2021MD010)和山东省气象局科研项目(2024sdztly02、2024sdqxz01、SDTQ2024-01、2025SDTQ02、2025sdqxz12、SDTQ2024-02、2025sdqxz18和2025SDTQ01)共同资助
引用文本:
辛月,侯淑梅,张登旭,范子琪,于腾飞,王瑞雪,曹倩,2026.基于多源观测资料的一次后向传播型大暴雨形成机理研究[J].气象,52(9):1079-1089.
XIN Yue,HOU Shumei,ZHANG Dengxu,FAN Ziqi,YU Tengfei,WANG Ruixue,CAO Qian,2026.Study on the Formation Mechanism of a Backward Propagation Type Heavy Rainstorm Based on Multi-Source Observation Data[J].Meteor Mon,52(9):1079-1089.
辛月,侯淑梅,张登旭,范子琪,于腾飞,王瑞雪,曹倩,2026.基于多源观测资料的一次后向传播型大暴雨形成机理研究[J].气象,52(9):1079-1089.
XIN Yue,HOU Shumei,ZHANG Dengxu,FAN Ziqi,YU Tengfei,WANG Ruixue,CAO Qian,2026.Study on the Formation Mechanism of a Backward Propagation Type Heavy Rainstorm Based on Multi-Source Observation Data[J].Meteor Mon,52(9):1079-1089.
