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投稿时间:2026-04-07 修订日期:2026-05-07
投稿时间:2026-04-07 修订日期:2026-05-07
中文摘要: 文章利用台站观测资料和再分析资料,分析了2025/2026年冬季(2025年12月至2026年2月)我国主要气候特征、大尺度大气环流异常和东亚冬季风特征,并重点探讨了2月沙尘天气异常活跃的成因。结果表明:2025/2026年冬季,全国平均气温为-1.5℃,较常年同期偏高1.5℃,为1961年以来历史同期次高;全国平均降水量为27.4 mm,较常年同期偏少35.3%,降水量距平呈“北多南少”分布。欧亚大陆中高纬500 hPa位势高度场以纬向型环流为主,西风带较为平直,东亚冬季风强度偏弱。冬季共发生6次沙尘天气过程,较常年同期偏多4.2次,其中沙尘暴过程3次,沙尘日数7.7 d,为1991年以来冬季最多。成因分析表明,沙源地暖干气候特征显著,降水偏少、气温偏高导致植被覆盖偏低,地表抗风蚀能力大幅下降,为沙尘暴发生提供了充足的物质基础。在此背景下,强冷空气与蒙古气旋的协同作用形成强气压梯度并引发极端大风,加之高低空温差增强热力抬升,导致沙尘被大量卷扬并向下游输送。全球气候变暖进一步加剧了沙源地的干旱化趋势,使得暖干配置与强天气过程叠加的频率增加。
Abstract:Using station observation data and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, this paper analyzes the main climatic characteristics, large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, and East Asian winter monsoon features in China during the winter of 2025/2026 (December 2025 to February 2026), with a focus on the causes of the abnormally active sand-dust weather in February 2026. The results show that in the winter of 2025/2026, the national average temperature was -1.5℃, which is 1.5℃ higher than the climatological average, ranking as the second highest for the same period since 1961. The national average precipitation was 27.4 mm, 35.3% less than normal, with a spatial distribution of more precipitation anomaly in the north and less in the south. The 500 hPa geopotential height field over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was dominated by a zonal circulation, the westerly was in a relatively straight pattern, and the East Asian winter monsoon was weaker than normal. During the 2025/2026 winter, a total of six sand-dust weather events occurred in China, 4.2 times more than the climatological average. Among them, there were three sandstorm events, which was 2.7 times more than the climatological average (0.3 times). Moreover, the number of sand-dust days reached 7.7 d, the highest in winter since 1991. The analysis on the formation causes of sand-dust weather indicates that the sand source areas experienced significantly warm and dry conditions in this winter. Precipitation was below average but temperature was above average. This situation led to low vegetation coverage and a substantial reduction in surface resistance to wind erosion, thereby providing abundant material conditions for sandstorms. Against this background, the synergistic effect of strong cold air and the Mongolian cyclone generated a large pressure gradient triggering extreme gale winds. This condition, combined with enhanced thermal lifting due to large temperature differences between upper and lower levels, resulted in large amounts of sands and dusts being lifted into the atmosphere and transported to downwind areas. Besides, global climate warming has further exacerbated the drying trend in the sand source regions, increasing the frequency of the superposition of such warm-dry conditions with intense weather processes.
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基金项目:京津冀环境综合治理国家科技重大专项(2025ZD1204800)、国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3013100)、国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2442207)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J004)、中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(2423020054)、贵州新气象科技有限责任公司“揭榜挂帅”项目(2024-N69)和中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2026-163)共同资助
引用文本:
李多,章大全,2026.2025/2026年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响[J].气象,52(7):880-892.
LI Duo,ZHANG Daquan,2026.Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation in Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/2026 Winter and Its Impact on Weather and Climate of China[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):880-892.
李多,章大全,2026.2025/2026年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响[J].气象,52(7):880-892.
LI Duo,ZHANG Daquan,2026.Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation in Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/2026 Winter and Its Impact on Weather and Climate of China[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):880-892.
