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投稿时间:2025-06-21 修订日期:2026-05-19
投稿时间:2025-06-21 修订日期:2026-05-19
中文摘要: 针对天气预报业务对历史相似个例参考的持续需求,以及传统检索方法在效率、客观性方面的不足,文章提出了一种基于图像指纹的历史相似天气快速检索技术。该技术借鉴图像学的指纹相似性检测算法,构建了气象要素场相似度量和单要素检索算法;基于天气学原理,融合高空环流与地面要素场的耦合特征,设计了多要素协同检索算法,以期更准确地识别与目标天气过程相似的历史降水场及对应环流背景。基于上述技术构建的历史相似天气检索平台已在中央气象台投入业务试用,并在多次天气过程预报中展现出较好的应用潜力与实用价值。统计检验结果表明,该方法检索的相似个例在距平相关系数和均方根误差等指标上均显著优于气候态。最后,对未来算法优化、客观评估及深化应用等方面进行探讨。
Abstract:Addressing the persistent demand for historical analogue references in operational weather forecasting and the deficiencies of traditional retrieval methods in efficiency and objectivity, this paper proposes a rapid retrieval technology for historical analog weather events based on image fingerprint synergy. This technology employs fingerprint similarity detection algorithms from imageology and establishes a similarity quantification method and single-variable synergistic query algorithm. Guided by synoptic principles and considering the coupling characteristics between upper-air circulation and surface variables, we design a multi-variable synergistic query algorithm to more accurately identify historical precipitation fields and the corresponding circulation patterns similar to a target weather process. Based on these techniques, a historical analog weather retrieval platform is developed and has been operationally trialed in the National Meteorological Centre, demonstrating good application potential and practical value in forecasting several weather events. Statistical verification indicates that the similar cases retrieved by this method significantly outperform climatology in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient and root mean square error. Finally, this paper discusses future development directions for technology, particularly in algorithm optimization, objective evaluation, and deepening application.
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基金项目:中国气象局重点创新团队智能预报技术团队项目(CMA2022ZD04)和新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发专项(2022B03027-2)共同资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| TANG Jian | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
| DAI Kan | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本:
唐健,代刊,2026.一种基于图像指纹历史相似天气快速检索技术及其应用[J].气象,52(7):857-868.
TANG Jian,DAI Kan,2026.Image Fingerprint-Based Historical Analog Weather Retrieval Technique and Its Application[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):857-868.
唐健,代刊,2026.一种基于图像指纹历史相似天气快速检索技术及其应用[J].气象,52(7):857-868.
TANG Jian,DAI Kan,2026.Image Fingerprint-Based Historical Analog Weather Retrieval Technique and Its Application[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):857-868.
