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气象:2026,52(7):769-783
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2024年西北太平洋夏季和秋季台风活动异常特征的差异对比
王依然,袁媛,陈丽娟,贾小龙
(国家气候中心,中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081)
Comparative Analysis of the Anomalous Typhoon Activity Features over Western North Pacific During Summer and Autumn in 2024
WANG Yiran,YUAN Yuan,CHEN Lijuan,JIA Xiaolong
(CMA Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2025-04-10    修订日期:2025-12-31
中文摘要: 利用1979—2023年中国气象局最佳台风路径资料、2024年中央气象台台风路径和强度实时业务资料,以及欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5逐月再分析资料等,对2024年西北太平洋台风的特点进行了详细分析,并从台风生成、活动、登陆等3个方面揭示该年夏季和秋季台风特征的差异。结果表明,2024年西北太平洋夏季台风生成个数偏少,生成源地偏北、偏东,极值强度偏弱;初夏的6月1日至7月18日无台风生成,盛夏台风频发,多为西北和北上路径;台风登陆个数偏少,登陆强度偏弱。然而,该年秋季台风活跃,生成个数为历史第三多,生成源地偏北、偏西,强度异常偏强;台风活动阶段性、群发性特征突出,多为西行和西北行路径;台风登陆个数偏多,登陆强度偏强。进一步研究表明,2024年夏季和秋季台风的显著差异与厄尔尼诺次年海温滞后效应、西北太平洋副热带高压异常、热带大气季节内振荡位相转换、南海夏季风爆发和撤退等多种因素密切相关。
Abstract:Based on the optimal typhoon track data of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) in 1979-2023, the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) real-time typhoon track and intensity data in 2024 and the monthly ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we analyze and reveal the different features of typhoons generated over western North Pacific in summer and autumn of 2024 from the following three aspects: their generation, activity and landfall. The results show that the number of typhoons formed in western North Pacific in the summer of 2024 was smaller than normal, their generation sources were more northward and eastward, and their maximum intensities were weaker. No typhoons were generated in the early summer from 1 June to 18 July, but typhoons occurred frequently in midsummer, mostly following northwest- and north-direction tracks. The typhoons making landfall in China were fewer than usual, and their landfall intensities were relatively weak. However, they were more active in autumn. The number of the autumn typhoons ranked the third highest in history, their generation sources were more northward and westward, and their intensities were unusually strong. The autumn typhoon activities were characterized by distinct periodicity and clustering, with most following the westward or northwestward tracks. The number of landfall typhoons was significantly above the normal, and at the same time their landfall intensities were above the average. Further analysis suggests that the significant differences between the summer and autumn typhoons in 2024 were closely correlated to the multiple factors including the lag effect of sea surface temperature in the year following El Nino, the abnormal western North Pacific subtropical high, the phase transition of the Madden-Julian oscillation, the onset and withdrawal of summer monsoon in the South China Sea, and so on.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2024YFC3013100)和中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室青年开放课题基金(26LCPS011)共同资助
引用文本:
王依然,袁媛,陈丽娟,贾小龙,2026.2024年西北太平洋夏季和秋季台风活动异常特征的差异对比[J].气象,52(7):769-783.
WANG Yiran,YUAN Yuan,CHEN Lijuan,JIA Xiaolong,2026.Comparative Analysis of the Anomalous Typhoon Activity Features over Western North Pacific During Summer and Autumn in 2024[J].Meteor Mon,52(7):769-783.