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气象:2026,52(5):566-579
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准双周振荡对2023年6月广东连续暖区暴雨的影响
纪忠萍,谷德军,高晓容,徐艳虹,李珊珊,梁巧倩,涂静,梁伟杰
(广东省气象台,广州 510640; 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/粤港澳大湾区气象研究院,广州 510640; 北京市通州区气象局,北京 101100; 广东省气候中心,广州 510640)
The Influence of Quasi-Biweekly Oscillations on Continuous Warm-Sector Rainstorms in Guangdong in June 2023
JI Zhongping,GU Dejun,GAO Xiaorong,XU Yanhong,LI Shanshan,LIANG Qiaoqian,TU Jing,LIANG Weijie
(Guangdong Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510640; Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA/Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Academy of Meteorological Research, Guangzhou 510640; Tongzhou Meteorological Office of Beijing, Beijing 101100; Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510640)
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投稿时间:2025-04-26    修订日期:2026-01-20
中文摘要: 采用小波分析、Lanczos时间滤波器等方法,分析了广东2023年前汛期三次连续暴雨过程的低频振荡特征,重点揭示了发生在广东西北部强西南风连续暖区暴雨的平均环流场及其在准双周振荡不同位相大气环流场的演变特征及低频信号的来源。 结果表明,三次连续暴雨主要存在7~18 d的准双周振荡,并处于准30~60 d季节内振荡的两次正位相背景中。6月22—26日主要发生于广东西北部的强西南风连续暖区暴雨,中高纬度具有明显的“西阻”与“东阻”,广东西北部处在高原槽底部与西太平洋副热带高压边缘及低层西南季风大风轴的左侧、气旋性环流右侧。强西南风连续暖区暴雨过程从间歇-开始-鼎盛期,中高层的低频信号来自南支波列伊朗高原—青藏高原或以南具有斜压性的低频反气旋与气旋的东传南压,低层的低频信号来自蒙古高原东部低频反气旋与四川盆地—云贵高原以东逐渐加强的低频气旋的东移南压。它们使南亚高压中心逐渐东移,西太平洋副热带高压减弱东退,青藏高原由低频气旋转为反气旋环流控制,华北—华南由低频反气旋转为气旋环流控制。它们可为连续暖区暴雨的中期-延伸期预报提供参考。
Abstract:The low-frequency oscillation characteristics of continuous rainstorm processes in Guangdong during the pre-flood season in 2023 are analyzed by means of wavelet analysis and Lanczos temporal filter. The focus of this study is on revealing the mean atmospheric circulation field and its evolution characteristics in different phases of quasi-biweekly oscillations and the source of the low-frequency signals of the continuous warm-sector rainstorms with strong southwesterly winds in the northwest of Guangdong Province. The results show that the three continuous rainstorms exhibited a quasi-7-18 d periodic oscillation, located in the positive phase of two quasi-30-60 d intraseasonal oscillations. The continuous warm-sector rainstorms with strong southwesterly winds mainly occurred in the northwest of Guangdong in 22-26 June when there were stable “west blocking” and “east blocking” at the middle and high latitudes. During this period, the northwest of Guangdong was located at the bottom of the plateau trough and the edge of the western Pacific subtropical high at 500 hPa, and at the left side of southwest monsoon axis and the right side of the cyclonic circulations at 850 hPa. During the intermittent-start-peak period of the continuous warm-sector rainstorm processes with strong southwesterly winds, the low-frequency signals in the mid-to-upper levels originated from the southern branch wave train with the eastward propagation and southward extension of baroclinic low-frequency anticyclones and cyclones within or to the south of the Iranian Plateau and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The low-frequency signals in the lower levels arose from the eastward movement and southward extension of the eastern Mongolian Plateau low-frequency anticyclone and the progressively intensifying low-frequency cyclone east of the Sichuan Basin and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. They induced the center of South Asian high to move eastward gradually and the western Pacific subtropical high to weaken and retreat eastward. At the same time, the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was controlled by low-frequency cyclonic circulation in intermittent periods and gradually became dominated by the low-frequency anticyclone circulation in the peak period, while North China and South China were controlled first by low-frequency anticyclone circulation in intermittent periods and then gradually by the low-frequency cyclonic circulation in the peak period. These findings could provide some references for medium-to-extended range forecasting of continuous warm-sector rainstorm.
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基金项目:中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题重点项目(23SWQXZ007)、国家自然科学基金项目(42365001)、粤港澳大湾区气象科技协同攻关项目(GHMA2025Y01)和广东省气象局科研项目(GRMC2023M28、GRMC2023M33、GRMC2024Q20)共同资助
引用文本:
纪忠萍,谷德军,高晓容,徐艳虹,李珊珊,梁巧倩,涂静,梁伟杰,2026.准双周振荡对2023年6月广东连续暖区暴雨的影响[J].气象,52(5):566-579.
JI Zhongping,GU Dejun,GAO Xiaorong,XU Yanhong,LI Shanshan,LIANG Qiaoqian,TU Jing,LIANG Weijie,2026.The Influence of Quasi-Biweekly Oscillations on Continuous Warm-Sector Rainstorms in Guangdong in June 2023[J].Meteor Mon,52(5):566-579.