本文已被:浏览 0次 下载 0次
投稿时间:2025-01-12 修订日期:2026-01-14
投稿时间:2025-01-12 修订日期:2026-01-14
中文摘要: 利用2021年1月至2022年12月中国地面逐时资料中的2 min平均风观测数据及ECMWF模式24 h预报的10 m风场数据,针对30°~40°N、110°~120°E范围内的662个国家级气象观测站,构建了一种可适用于多站点风速风向预报的二次偏差订正方法,并利用2023年1—12月的数据进行检验。研究发现:合理订正数值模式的u、v风预报能够有效提升不同站点风速风向预报效果,但各站点间预报误差差异明显,且u、v风联合建模的方式会将风速风向预报误差相互叠加。基于模式预报的u、v风构建一元线性回归订正模型对多数站点的风向预报效果有所提升,但对较强风速(≥10 m·s-1)的订正能力仍显不足,为此进一步采用分位数匹配方法对线性回归订正后的u、v风所合成的风速进行再次订正,即为二次偏差订正方法。检验结果表明,二次偏差订正方法在风速风向的预报中表现出良好的性能,在全部风速与较强风速的预报中,其均方根误差较ECMWF 模式分别减少了18.8%与29.6%。在冷空气大风和台风大风个例中,该方法也同样展示出对较强风速预报的优势。
中文关键词: 风速预报,风向预报,分位数匹配,风矢量
Abstract:To enhance the forecast accuracy of average wind speed and direction, based on the 2 min average wind speed and direction data from surface observations provided by China Meteorological Administration from January 2021 to December 2022, as well as the 10 m wind forecasts from the ECMWF deterministic model at 24 h lead time, a two-step bias correction method tailored for multi-site wind speed and direction forecasts is developed for 662 national observation stations that are located within the range of 30°-40°N and 110°-120°E. Then this method is validated by using data from January to December 2023. The results show that proper correction of the u and v winds forecasted by model can effectively improve wind speed and direction forecast performance at individual stations. However, significant discrepancies exist in the u and v wind forecast errors among stations, and joint modeling of u and v winds tends to compound errors in wind speed and direction forecasts. Constructing simple linear regression correction models separately for u and v winds at each station can improve wind direction forecasts at most stations, but the correction capability for strong wind speeds (≥10 m·s-1) remains limited. To overcome this shortcoming, a quantile matching approach, i.e., the two step bias correction method, is applied to further correct the wind speed derived from the regression adjusted u and v winds. The validation results show that the two step bias correction method performs well in both wind speed and direction forecasting. Compared with the ECMWF model, the corrected root mean square error by this method is reduced by 18.8% for all wind speeds and by 29.6% for strong wind speeds. Moreover, this method also exhibits distinct advantages in forecasting strong winds associated with cold air and typhoons.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004200)资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| HU Haichuan | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
| LIN Jian | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本:
胡海川,林建,2026.基于二次偏差订正的多站点风速风向预报[J].气象,52(4):443-453.
HU Haichuan,LIN Jian,2026.Multi-Site Wind Speed and Direction Forecasting Based on Two-Step Bias Correction Method[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):443-453.
胡海川,林建,2026.基于二次偏差订正的多站点风速风向预报[J].气象,52(4):443-453.
HU Haichuan,LIN Jian,2026.Multi-Site Wind Speed and Direction Forecasting Based on Two-Step Bias Correction Method[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):443-453.
