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气象:2026,52(1):1-15
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华南外场观测试验中北斗探空资料对2023年台风“苏拉”的同化预报影响
罗嘉美,郭启云,马旭林,段明铿
(南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京 210044; 江西省赣州市气象局,赣州 341700; 中国气象局气象探测中心,北京 100081)
Impact of Beidou Sounding Data on the Assimilation Forecast of Typhoon Saola in 2023 in South China Field Observation Tests
LUO Jiamei,GUO Qiyun,MA Xulin,DUAN Mingkeng
(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044; Ganzhou Meteorological Office of Jiangxi Province, Ganzhou 341700; CMA Meteorological Observation Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2024-10-22    修订日期:2025-07-26
中文摘要: 基于2023年夏季华南外场试验数据,利用中尺度天气研究和预报模式(WRF)及其变分同化系统(WRFDA)的三维变分同化方法,研究同化广东组网的北斗探空资料对台风“苏拉”(2309号)预报的贡献,探讨了新型北斗探空观测系统全面业务化的应用前景。研究发现,北斗探空与同站L波段探空以及ERA5再分析、FNL分析场资料具有基本一致的数据质量,观测价值较高;北斗探空资料的有效同化对背景场的温度、湿度和风场均有不同程度的调整,明显改善了分析场质量,对台风的路径、强度以及降水预报也均有相应改善,其中路径均方根误差相比未同化改善了11.87%。
Abstract:Based on the data from the South China field observation experiment in summer 2023, the contribution of assimilating Beidou sounding data from the Guangdong network to the forecast of Typhoon Saola (No.2309) is analyzed by means of the three-dimensional variational assimilation method of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and its variational assimilation system (WRFDA). The application prospects of the fully operationalized new Beidou sounding observation system are also explored. The study reveals that Beidou sounding has basically the same quality as L-band sounding at the same station, and as ERA5 reanalysis data and FNL analysis field data, so it has high observational value. The effective assimilation of Beidou sounding data can adjust the temperature, humidity, and wind fields of the background field to varying degrees, significantly improving the quality of analysis field, and also has corresponding improvements in the forecast of the typhoon’s track, intensity, and precipitation forecast. Among them, the track RMSE is reduced by 11.87% compared to the non-assimilated Beidou sounding.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(U2242213、U2442221、U2442214)和国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000902)共同资助
引用文本:
罗嘉美,郭启云,马旭林,段明铿,2026.华南外场观测试验中北斗探空资料对2023年台风“苏拉”的同化预报影响[J].气象,52(1):1-15.
LUO Jiamei,GUO Qiyun,MA Xulin,DUAN Mingkeng,2026.Impact of Beidou Sounding Data on the Assimilation Forecast of Typhoon Saola in 2023 in South China Field Observation Tests[J].Meteor Mon,52(1):1-15.