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气象:2025,51(11):1547-1558
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人工影响天气作业效益评价研究综述
王飞,王思瀚,乌日罕,耿仪,葛旭东,孙擎,刘莉,林大伟,孙丰宾,赵志强,陈宝君
(中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室,北京 100081; 中国气象局人工影响天气中心,北京 100081; 中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081)
Advances in Studies on Benefit Evaluation of Weather Modification
WANG Fei,WANG Sihan,WU Rihan,GENG Yi,GE Xudong,SUN Qing,LIU Li,LIN Dawei,SUN Fengbin,ZHAO Zhiqiang,CHEN Baojun
(CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081; CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2025-08-11    修订日期:2025-10-17
中文摘要: 人工影响天气的核心在于理解和应用大气物理及云降水原理,借助人工干预手段,引导局地天气过程向人类期望的方向发展。科学评价人工影响天气作业效益并构建客观的评价体系,对优化人工干预决策具有重要意义。文章系统综述了近年来人工影响天气在水文、农业、生态、环境、经济等五大维度的效益评价研究进展,从多个尺度上论述当前研究的瓶颈问题和挑战,提出人工影响天气从“物理效果导向”转向“综合价值优化”的研究范式转型方向,旨在为后续效益评价的科研创新与业务应用提供理论依据与实践指导。
Abstract:The essence of weather modification (WM) lies in understanding and applying the principles of atmospheric physics and cloud microphysics to steer local weather processes toward desired outcomes through targeted intervention. Scientifically evaluating the effectiveness of WM operations and establishing objective assessment frameworks are crucial for optimizing intervention strategies. To provide both a theoretical foundation and practical guidance to support future research innovation in the field of WM benefit evaluation, this paper reviews the recent progresses in evaluating the benefits of WM in five key dimensions: hydrology, agriculture, ecology, environment and economy. Besides, current research challenges and limitations across multiple scales are analyzed and a paradigm shift from a “physical-effect-oriented” approach to one that is centered on “comprehensive value optimization” is proposed.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2024YFF1308200、2023YFD2302700)、宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目(2022CMG02010)和中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J035)共同资助
作者单位
王飞 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
王思瀚 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
乌日罕 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
耿仪 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
葛旭东 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
孙擎 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象科学研究院北京 100081 
刘莉 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象科学研究院北京 100081 
林大伟 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
孙丰宾 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
赵志强 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
陈宝君 中国气象局云降水物理与人工影响天气重点开放实验室北京 100081
中国气象局人工影响天气中心北京 100081 
Author NameAffiliation
WANG Fei CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
WANG Sihan CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
WU Rihan CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
GENG Yi CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
GE Xudong CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
SUN Qing CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 
LIU Li CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 
LIN Dawei CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
SUN Fengbin CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
ZHAO Zhiqiang CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
CHEN Baojun CMA Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification (CPML), Beijing 100081
CMA Weather Modification Centre, Beijing 100081 
引用文本:
王飞,王思瀚,乌日罕,耿仪,葛旭东,孙擎,刘莉,林大伟,孙丰宾,赵志强,陈宝君,2025.人工影响天气作业效益评价研究综述[J].气象,51(11):1547-1558.
WANG Fei,WANG Sihan,WU Rihan,GENG Yi,GE Xudong,SUN Qing,LIU Li,LIN Dawei,SUN Fengbin,ZHAO Zhiqiang,CHEN Baojun,2025.Advances in Studies on Benefit Evaluation of Weather Modification[J].Meteor Mon,51(11):1547-1558.