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投稿时间:2025-08-30 修订日期:2025-10-16
投稿时间:2025-08-30 修订日期:2025-10-16
中文摘要: 数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾减灾的核心科技,是衡量国家气象现代化水平的关键标志。在我国数值天气预报的自主创新历程中,以全球/区域同化预报系统(GRAPES)为核心的全面业务体系的建立,是具有里程碑意义的事件,标志着从技术引进到自主创新的重大跨越。本文重点综述了新世纪以来GRAPES发展过程中在核心技术方面取得的原创性成果,主要包括预估-修正的半隐式半拉格朗日时间积分方案、多矩约束有限体积方法、高精度正定保形平流方案、双参数云物理方案、尺度自适应湍流参数化方案、快速辐射传输模式、非静力全球模式的切线和伴随模式、有约束卫星资料偏差订正、FY-4红外高光谱同化算法等方面的自主创新发展。这些突破是基础研究与业务实践紧密结合的成果,全面提升了我国自主研发的数值天气模式的预报性能。
Abstract:Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the core technology for weather forecasting services and disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is also a key indicator for measuring the level of a nation’s meteorological modernization. In the course of independent innovation of China’s NWP, the establishment of a comprehensive operational system centered on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) is a milestone event, marking a major leap from technology introduction to independent innovation. This article provides a comprehensive review of the original achievements in the core technologies during the development of the GRAPES since the 21st century. The key innovations include a prediction-correction semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian time integration scheme, the multi-moment constrained finite volume (MCV) method, a high-precision positive-definite shape-preserving scalar advection scheme, a double-moment microphysical cloud scheme, a scale-adaptive 3D turbulence parameterization scheme, the self-developed ARMS (advanced radiative transfer modeling system) model, the tangent linear and ADjoint models for non-hydrostatic global models, the constrained satellite data bias correction techniques, and the assimilation algorithms for FY-4 infrared hyperspectral data. These breakthroughs are the results from the close integration of fundamental researches and operational practices, and have comprehensively enhanced the forecast performance of China’s independently developed numerical weather prediction model.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42090032、42275168)共同资助
引用文本:
沈学顺,苏勇,李兴良,韩威,杨俊,马占山,刘永柱,张旭,唐杰,陈贤,翁富忠,2025.中国业务数值天气预报自主发展中的理论和方法创新[J].气象,51(11):1293-1320.
SHEN Xueshun,SU Yong,LI Xingliang,HAN Wei,YANG Jun,MA Zhanshan,LIU Yongzhu,ZHANG Xu,TANG Jie,CHEN Xian,WENG Fuzhong,2025.Innovation of Theory and Methodology in the Independent Development of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in China[J].Meteor Mon,51(11):1293-1320.
沈学顺,苏勇,李兴良,韩威,杨俊,马占山,刘永柱,张旭,唐杰,陈贤,翁富忠,2025.中国业务数值天气预报自主发展中的理论和方法创新[J].气象,51(11):1293-1320.
SHEN Xueshun,SU Yong,LI Xingliang,HAN Wei,YANG Jun,MA Zhanshan,LIU Yongzhu,ZHANG Xu,TANG Jie,CHEN Xian,WENG Fuzhong,2025.Innovation of Theory and Methodology in the Independent Development of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in China[J].Meteor Mon,51(11):1293-1320.
