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投稿时间:2025-04-14 修订日期:2025-06-06
投稿时间:2025-04-14 修订日期:2025-06-06
中文摘要: 2022年12月28日郑新黄河大桥因大雾发生多起车辆相撞的交通事故。利用ERA5再分析资料和地面观测数据,采用扰动法对此次大雾天气进行诊断分析,发现该大雾天气具有局地突发性强、能见度低、夜间降温明显的特点;大雾造成的低能见度,以及高湿和低温导致的桥面结冰湿滑,是造成车辆追尾事故的气象原因。天气形势稳定,低层弱冷空气与西南暖脊为雾区输送暖湿气流,环流形势有利于雾的生成。郑新黄河大桥附近水汽通量大,有弱的水汽辐合,存在浅薄的逆温层,辐射冷却作用强,为辐射雾的发生和持续提供了有利的动力、水汽和热力条件。风速、相对湿度、气温、比湿的扰动信号与相应的全场信号相比,可以更好地反映大雾的可预报信号,多扰动因子综合分析可得出雾的消散时间。
中文关键词: 东亚冬季风,季节内变化,南方降水,拉尼娜,西伯利亚高压
Abstract:In the winter of 2024/2025, the mean temperature in China was 0.4℃ higher than normal with significant intra-seasonal variations. Average precipitation was 41.1% lower than normal, and the regions south of the Yangtze River experienced persistently less precipitation. Atmospheric circulation patterns in the mid-to-high latitudes over Eurasia have shown staged differences in this winter. In December 2024, the Arctic Oscillation was in a negative phase and the East Asian trough and Siberian high were stronger than usual. All the three got weakened in January 2025 and then strengthened again in February. Especially in February, the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation reached the strongest stage of this winter while the activity of Eurasian blocking high was significantly enhanced. These factors collectively triggered an obvious shift in the temperature of China from warmer to colder conditions. In the 2024/2025 winter, the low-latitude atmosphere responded significantly to the La Nina-type sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. Persistent cyclonic circulation anomalies dominated the lower troposphere from the Philippines to the South China Sea, while the regions south of the Yangtze River in China remained consistently influenced by northerly wind anomalies. Coupled with persistently weak activity of the India-Burma trough, the influences of multiple circulation conditions led to sustained moisture transport deficits and significantly reduced precipitation in eastern China, particularly in the southern part.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42175048、42405045、42475019、U2142207)、中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(24NLTSZ001、23NLTSZ003)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J025)、中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(2423020054)和国家气候中心创新团队(NCCCXTD003)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
赵玉衡 | 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京 100081 |
丁婷 | 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京 100081 国家气候中心气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室,北京 100081 |
引用文本:
赵玉衡,丁婷,2025.2024/2025年冬季北半球大气环流及对中国冬季气候异常的影响[J].气象,51(7):876-890.
ZHAO Yuheng,DING Ting,2025.The Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in the 2024/2025 Winter and Its Impact on the Winter Climate Anomalies in China[J].Meteor Mon,51(7):876-890.
赵玉衡,丁婷,2025.2024/2025年冬季北半球大气环流及对中国冬季气候异常的影响[J].气象,51(7):876-890.
ZHAO Yuheng,DING Ting,2025.The Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation in the 2024/2025 Winter and Its Impact on the Winter Climate Anomalies in China[J].Meteor Mon,51(7):876-890.
