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投稿时间:2024-05-29 修订日期:2024-12-03
投稿时间:2024-05-29 修订日期:2024-12-03
中文摘要: 利用2020—2022年内蒙古自治区妇幼保健院3~14岁门诊、急诊哮喘患儿就诊量以及同期气象资料,采用分布式滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析呼和浩特市气象因素对内蒙古自治区妇幼保健院哮喘儿童门诊、急诊就诊量的影响。结果表明:2020—2022年月平均哮喘儿童就诊量为36.17人次,3年哮喘儿童就诊量约存在三个峰值时段,分别为12月至次年1月、5—6月、8—9月。皮尔逊相关性分析发现,月平均哮喘儿童就诊量与气温、降水量均呈正相关。DLNM显示降水量对哮喘儿童就诊量增加有危险效应,在滞后阶数为1时达到最大。即随气温升高、降水量增加,哮喘儿童就诊人数上升;降水量对哮喘儿童就诊量存在滞后危险。
中文关键词: 哮喘,气象因素,儿童,滞后性
Abstract:The data of asthmatic children in the Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and meteorological elements from 2020 to 2022 and the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) are used to explore the influence of meteorological elements on outpatient and emergency visits of asthmatic children in Hohhot during 2020-2022. The results show that the average monthly number of visits of asthmatic children in the Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was 36.17 from 2020 to 2022, and the visits of children with asthma in three years occurred roughly in three peak periods, from December to next January, May to June and August to September, respectively. The Pearson relation analysis reveals that the number of monthly visits of asthmatic children to the hospital was positively associated with temperature and precipitation. The DLNM shows a hazard effect of precipitation on increased clinic visits of asthmatic children, reaching a maximum at the lag order 1, that is, the number of asthmatic children in outpatient and emergency department increases with the increased temperature and precipitation. Precipitation has the risk of lagging outpatient and emergency visits for children with asthma.
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基金项目:内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2019MS08109)资助
引用文本:
李玉敏,梁晓平,张玉玲,2025.呼和浩特市气象因素对内蒙古自治区妇幼保健院哮喘儿童的影响[J].气象,51(6):756-762.
LI Yumin,LIANG Xiaoping,ZHANG Yuling,2025.The Influence of Meteorological Elements in Hohhot on Asthmatic Children in the Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region[J].Meteor Mon,51(6):756-762.
李玉敏,梁晓平,张玉玲,2025.呼和浩特市气象因素对内蒙古自治区妇幼保健院哮喘儿童的影响[J].气象,51(6):756-762.
LI Yumin,LIANG Xiaoping,ZHANG Yuling,2025.The Influence of Meteorological Elements in Hohhot on Asthmatic Children in the Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region[J].Meteor Mon,51(6):756-762.
