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气象:2025,51(6):711-723
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华西秋雨期极端降水事件及其环流特征
唐红玉,吴遥,董新宁,白莹莹,魏麟骁
(中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室,重庆 401147; 重庆市气候中心,重庆 401147)
Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Circulation Characteristics During the Autumn Rain Period in West China
TANG Hongyu,WU Yao,DONG Xinning,BAI Yingying,WEI Linxiao
(CMA Key Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy, Chongqing 401147; Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147)
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投稿时间:2024-03-18    修订日期:2025-03-20
中文摘要: 利用1961—2022年华西地区373个气象观测台站秋季降水资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的ERA5逐日再分析资料,分析了华西秋雨期持续性与非持续性两类极端降水事件的最新变化特征,并从关键大气环流系统等角度,对两类事件的环流特征及差异进行了分析。结果表明:近62年来,华西秋雨期持续性极端降水事件呈降水量和频次增加、强度增强和对秋季总降水量贡献率增加的变化趋势;而非持续性极端降水事件呈降水量减少,强度、频次及对总降水量的贡献率变化不明显的特征。两类极端降水事件发生时,北半球欧亚中高纬度均为“两槽一脊”的环流型且槽脊的位置基本一致,但强度有较大差异:持续(非持续)性极端降水事件发生时,黑海和里海以北槽、巴尔喀什湖和贝加尔湖以北脊及鄂霍次克海以东以北槽偏强(弱),低纬度地区印缅槽偏强(相对稍弱)、西太平洋副热带高压位置更偏北偏西(相对偏南偏东)。华西秋雨期内发生的持续性极端降水事件过程中,除对流层中低层大尺度环流背景对其极为有利外,对流层高层南亚高压北界会提前南退东缩,副热带西风急流建立发展,故提前关注和监测南亚高压的移动路径和形态变化以及副热带西风急流的变化,可以为提前预测持续性极端降水事件的发生提供前兆信息。
Abstract:Using autumn precipitation data from 373 meteorological observation stations in West China from 1961 to 2022 and ERA5 daily reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this article analyzes the latest changes in the characteristics of both persistent and non-persistent types of extreme precipitation events during the autumn rain period in West China. At the same time, the circulation characteristics and differences of these two types of events are disussed from the perspective of the major atmospheric circulation systems. The results are as follows. The persistent extreme precipitation events show an increasing trend in precipitation amount, frequency and intensity, and contribute more to total autumn precipitation in West China over the past 62 years. In contrast, the non-persistent extreme precipitation events have a decrease in precipitation amount, with no significant change in precipitation intensity, frequency and contribution to total precipitation. When the two types of extreme precipitation events occur, the circulation pattern in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere of Eurasia typically consists of two troughs and a ridge, with the positions of the troughs and ridge being essentially consistent, but they have considerable differences in intensity. During persistent (non-persistent) extreme precipitation events, the trough north of Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the ridge north of Lakes Balkhash and Baikal, and the trough north and east of the Sea of Okhotsk are stronger (weaker). In the low-latitude areas, the Indo-Burma trough is stronger (relatively weaker), and the position of the Western Pacific subtropical high is more northward and westward (relatively southward and eastward). In the process of persistent extreme precipitation events during the autumn rain period in West China, in addition to the highly favorable background of large-scale circulation in the middle and lower troposphere, the northern boundary of the South Asian high retreats southward and eastward earlier, and the subtropical westerly jet stream builds up and develops. Therefore, early attention and monitoring of changes in the moving path and pattern of the South Asian high and changes in the subtropical westerly jet stream, can provide precursor information for early prediction of persistent extreme precipitation events.
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基金项目:重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0558)和中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025Q017)共同资助
引用文本:
唐红玉,吴遥,董新宁,白莹莹,魏麟骁,2025.华西秋雨期极端降水事件及其环流特征[J].气象,51(6):711-723.
TANG Hongyu,WU Yao,DONG Xinning,BAI Yingying,WEI Linxiao,2025.Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Circulation Characteristics During the Autumn Rain Period in West China[J].Meteor Mon,51(6):711-723.