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投稿时间:2024-06-27 修订日期:2025-01-11
投稿时间:2024-06-27 修订日期:2025-01-11
中文摘要: 2020年8月10—13日、14—18日(分别简称“8.10-13”“8.14-18”),四川盆地连续出现两次持续性极端暴雨天气过程,降水强度大,落区高度重叠,引发次生灾害导致人员伤亡和巨大经济损失。为了深入认识极端暴雨发生发展机制,理解其致灾机理,文章利用高空、地面观测、FY-4A红外云图、多普勒雷达资料和ERA5再分析资料,对比分析了“8.10-13”“8.14-18”暴雨过程的降水特征和最强降水阶段中尺度对流系统的发展演变及触发机制。结果表明:两次过程均发生在中高纬“两槽一脊”环流背景下,是盆地典型的“东高西低”型暴雨,都出现了极端降水。“8.10-13”暴雨小时雨强超历史极值,“8.14-18”暴雨小时雨强与历史统计值相当。“8.10-13”暴雨最强降水阶段属于暖区强降水,由一个中尺度对流复合体(MCC)发生—发展—成熟—减弱过程导致,≥40 dBz的回波范围大,持续时间长,回波质心低,强度超过55 dBz;“8.14-18”暴雨最强降水阶段属于混合性降水,由两个α中尺度对流系统(α-MCS)发生—发展—合并—减弱过程导致,≥40 dBz的回波范围小,持续时间短,低质心回波强度达50 dBz。“8.10-13”暴雨喇叭口地形绕流和迎风坡抬升作用及陡峭地形过渡区温度高梯度带触发对流,配合低层较强暖平流,高层弱冷平流,对流维持;“8.14-18”暴雨对流层低层冷暖气流交汇辐合抬升和暖区低空急流左侧辐合触发了对流,冷暖气流交汇形成的切变使得降水持续。
中文关键词: 四川盆地,极端暴雨,短时强降水,MCC,MCS,对比分析
Abstract:Two persistent extreme rainstorms occurred in Sichuan Basin during 10-13 and 14-18 August 2020 resulting in secondary disasters, casualties, and huge economic losses.To deeply understand the development mechanism of extreme rainstorms and the disaster-causing mechanism, using various observations and ERA5 reanalysis data, we comparatively analyze the precipitation characteristics of these two rainstorms, and the development, evolution and trigger mechanism of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the heaviest precipitation stage. The results show that the two rainstorm processes both occurred under the circulation background with “two troughs and one ridge” in the middle and high latitudes. They were typical rainstorms accompanied by “east-high-pressure and west-low-pressure” in the basin, and brought precipitation over 250 mm·d-1 (or 100 mm·h-1). The hourly rainfall of the 10-13 August rainstorm exceeded the historical extremes,while that of the 14-18 August rainstorm was equivalent to the historical statistical value. The most intense precipitation stage of the 10-13 August rainstorm was a warm-sector rainstorm, which was caused by a mesoscale convective complex occurrence-development-maturation-weakening process. The radar echo areas ≥40 dBz in this rainstorm were wide and long-lasting. And the echo centroid was low and the intensity was more than 55 dBz. The heaviest precipitation phase of the 14-18 August rainstorm was a mixed precipitation induced by a two α-MCS occurrence-development-merger-weakening process. The radar echo areas ≥40 dBz were narrow and short-lived. The echo centroid was low and the intensity reached 50 dBz. Convection in the 10-13 August rainstorm was produced by horn-mouth terrain flow, windward slop uplift and high temperature gradient zone, and was sustained with strong warm advection at low level, weak cold advection at high level at the same time. The 14-18 August rainstorm convection was triggered by the convergence of the lower troposphere cold, warm currents and the left convergence of the low-altitude jet stream in the warm zone. The shear formed by the intersection of the cold and warm currents led to the persistence of the precipitation.
文章编号: 中图分类号:P458 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(52239006、41930972、41975001和91937301)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J016)和中国气象局西南区域气象中心创新团队基金(XNQYCXTD-202202)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
肖红茹 | 四川省气象台,成都 610072; 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都 610072 |
周春花 | 四川省气象灾害防御技术中心,成都 610072 |
龙柯吉 | 四川省气象台,成都 610072 |
谌芸 | 国家气象中心,北京 100081 |
但玻 | 四川省气象台,成都 610072 |
引用文本:
肖红茹,周春花,龙柯吉,谌芸,但玻,2025.四川盆地两次持续性极端暴雨对比分析[J].气象,51(3):269-284.
XIAO Hongru,ZHOU Chunhua,LONG Keji,CHEN Yun,DAN Bo,2025.Comparative Analyses of Two Persistent Extreme Rainstorms in Sichuan Basin[J].Meteor Mon,51(3):269-284.
肖红茹,周春花,龙柯吉,谌芸,但玻,2025.四川盆地两次持续性极端暴雨对比分析[J].气象,51(3):269-284.
XIAO Hongru,ZHOU Chunhua,LONG Keji,CHEN Yun,DAN Bo,2025.Comparative Analyses of Two Persistent Extreme Rainstorms in Sichuan Basin[J].Meteor Mon,51(3):269-284.
