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气象:2025,51(2):239-248
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基于大气电场信号特征的雷电风险预警技术研究
罗志勇,殷启元,李翔
(广东省中山市气象局,中山 528400; 中国气象局雷电重点开放实验室,北京 100081; 广东省气候中心,广州 510640; 成都信息工程大学,成都 610000)
Research on Lightning Risk Early Warning Technology Based on Characteristics of Atmospheric Electric Field Signals
LUO Zhiyong,YIN Qiyuan,LI Xiang
(Zhongshan Meteorological Office of Guangdong Province, Zhongshan 528400; Key Laboratory of Lightning, CMA, Beijing 100081; Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510640; Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610000)
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投稿时间:2024-01-20    修订日期:2024-11-26
中文摘要: 为利用好大气电场信号特征并提高雷电风险预警精准度,文章基于增强经验小波变换和自适应平滑滤波法,提出了一种结合时频域特征和一维形态学的雷电风险预警方法。通过分析大气电场仪安装点周围半径20 km内83天有雷暴过程和123天非雷暴过程对应的全天资料,提出了使用时频域特征的谱宽一阶后向差分和均方差作为雷电和非雷电过程的预警判断特征、能量差作为解除预警判断特征的方法。该方法在雷暴过程中的雷电风险预警准确率(POD)达到了77.11%,平均预警可提前22.27 min;非雷暴过程中POD达到了90.24%;大部分预警解除滞后时间处于0~40 min,平均滞后时间为32 min。根据与前人算法模型比对,该方法预警和解除可满足雷电高影响行业的雷电风险预警使用。
Abstract:To effectively utilize the characteristics of atmospheric electric field signals and improve the precision of lightning risk warning, using data from an atmospheric electric field instrument installed on a 500 m-height platform at the Guangzhou Tower within a 20 km (radius) range, this paper analyzes the full day (00:00 BT-24:00 BT) data from 83 days with thunderstorm processes and 123 days with non-thunderstorm processes corresponding to the instrument in 2021 and 2022, and then proposes a lightning risk warning method combining time-frequency domain features and one-dimensional Morpho based on the fusion of enhanced empirical wavelet transform and adaptive Savitzky-Golay (EEWT-ASG). This proposed method uses the spectral width first-order backward difference and mean square error of time-frequency domain features as warning and judgment features for lightning and non-lightning processes, and energy difference is used as a feature for judging the release of warnings. Through selecting samples for effectiveness testing in this article, the proposed lightning risk warning method achieves an accuracy (POD) of 77.11% during thunderstorms, and also has the lowest false alarm ratio (40.00%) and highest critical success index (0.51) performance. Besides, an average warning lead time of 22.27 min is achieved. During non-thunderstorm processes, POD reaches 90.24%. Most warnings have a delay time of 0-40 min, with an average delay time of 32 min. According to the comparison with previous algorithm models, the method proposed in this paper for warning and relief can meet the needs of lightning risk warning in industries with high lightning impact.
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基金项目:中国气象局雷电重点开放实验室课题(2023KELL-B006、2024KELL-B006)和广东省气象局科研项目(GRMC2024M15)共同资助
引用文本:
罗志勇,殷启元,李翔,2025.基于大气电场信号特征的雷电风险预警技术研究[J].气象,51(2):239-248.
LUO Zhiyong,YIN Qiyuan,LI Xiang,2025.Research on Lightning Risk Early Warning Technology Based on Characteristics of Atmospheric Electric Field Signals[J].Meteor Mon,51(2):239-248.