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投稿时间:2023-09-18 修订日期:2024-07-17
投稿时间:2023-09-18 修订日期:2024-07-17
中文摘要: 采用标准降水检验方法和MODE空间检验方法,对CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式的2021年我国东部地区降水预报效果进行评估。结果表明:CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对第二和第三季度的预报技巧相对较高,第一和第四季度的预报技巧相对较低,显示区域数值模式在暖季降水预报方面有较好的应用潜力。综合四个季度的ETS评分和BIAS分析,CMA-MESO模式第三季度降水预报技巧整体高于CMA-SH9模式,其他季节则是CMA-SH9模式预报技巧相对更高,另外,两家模式在各季度均存在BIAS偏大的特征,而且总体呈现出空报率较高的特征,改善这两方面的不足是提升区域模式降水预报技巧的重要抓手。四个季度的暴雨MODE空间检验结果显示,CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对第二和第三季度的预报能力相对更优,但均存在对暴雨降水目标面积预报偏大的特征。CMA-SH9模式四个季度对暴雨降水目标各分位强度预报均相对观测值偏强,而CMA-MESO模式与观测值更为接近,仅第一季度呈现预报偏强特征。“21·7”河南特大暴雨和台风烟花的MODE空间检验结果显示CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对大暴雨以上量级强降水预报均表现出影响范围偏大的特征,但对于降水极值预报偏小,CMA-SH9模式与观测极值更为接近。
中文关键词: CMA-MESO,CMA-SH9,中国东部地区,降水检验
Abstract:The standard precipitation verificaiton method and the MODE (Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation) spatial method are applied to evaluate the performance of the CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 models in predicting precipitation in eastern China in 2021 in this article. The results show that the two models have relatively high prediction skills for the second and third seasons of 2021, while the prediction skills for the first and fourth seasons are relatively low. The regional numerical models have good application potential in warm season precipitation forecasting. Based on the ETS and BIAS of the four seasons, the overall precipitation prediction skills of the CMA-MESO model in the third season are higher than those of the CMA-SH9 model, while in other seaons, the CMA-SH9 model has relatively higher prediction skills. Both models show a higher BIAS and a higher false alarm ratio in each season. Improving the shortcomings of these two aspects is an important means to enhance the precipitaiton prediction skills of regional models. The spatial verification results of torrential rain for four seasons show that CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 models have relatively better forecasting abilities for the second and third seasons, and both of them tend to overestimate the object area of torrential rain. The CMA-SH9 model tends to overestimate the object quantile intensities of torrential rainfall in four seasons compared to observations, whereas the CMA-MESO model shows closer agreement with observations, exhibiting an overestimation only in the first season. Spatial verification of the MODE for the July 2021 severe torrential rain in Henan and Typhoon In-Fa reveals that both the CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 models exhibit a tendency to overestimate the affected area for intense precipitation exceeding heavy torrential rain levels. Nonetheless, these models continue to underpredict the maxima of rainfall, with the CMA-SH9 model outputs more closely aligned with the observed extreme values.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZ202302)和中国气象局上海台风研究所基本科研业务费专项基金项目(2024JB01)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
徐同 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海 200030 |
王琴 | 上海海洋中心气象台,上海 200030 |
漆梁波 | 上海中心气象台,上海 200030 |
黄伟 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海 200030 |
引用文本:
徐同,王琴,漆梁波,黄伟,2025.CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对中国东部地区降水预报的性能检验[J].气象,51(2):167-181.
XU Tong,WANG Qin,QI Liangbo,HUANG Wei,2025.Verificaiton of CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 Models for Precipitation Forecast in Eastern China[J].Meteor Mon,51(2):167-181.
徐同,王琴,漆梁波,黄伟,2025.CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对中国东部地区降水预报的性能检验[J].气象,51(2):167-181.
XU Tong,WANG Qin,QI Liangbo,HUANG Wei,2025.Verificaiton of CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 Models for Precipitation Forecast in Eastern China[J].Meteor Mon,51(2):167-181.
