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气象:2025,51(1):68-84
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基于双偏振雷达和FY-4A卫星资料的一次湖南秋季强冰雹预警特征分析
杨湘婧,唐明晖,袁韬,兰明才,彭听听
(湖南省郴州市气象局,郴州 423000; 湖南省气象台,长沙 410118; 气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,长沙 410118)
Analysis on Early Warning Characteristics of an Autumn Severe Hail in Hunan Province Based on Dual-Polarization Radar and FY-4A Satellite Data
YANG Xiangjing,TANG Minghui,YUAN Tao,LAN Mingcai,PENG Tingting
(Chenzhou Meteorological Office of Hunan Province, Chenzhou 423000; Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 410118; Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Changsha 410118)
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投稿时间:2024-04-28    修订日期:2024-12-03
中文摘要: 为提升秋季冰雹监测预警能力,基于双偏振雷达和风云四号A星(FY-4A)资料,对2023年11月湖南一次罕见的秋季强冰雹过程进行分析,探讨其预警特征。研究发现:(1)强冰雹由超级单体风暴产生,在降雹阶段,强回波中心(水平反射率因子ZH≥65 dBz)底部接近地面,相关系数(CC)<0.9,差分传播相移率(KDP)为空洞,差分反射率因子(ZDR)为-3~0 dB,对应直径≥5 cm的大冰雹降落,与实况吻合。(2)ZDR柱上升和下降可表征上升气流的加强和减弱,ZDR结合CC有助于识别三体散射(TBSS)和旁瓣特征。强回波面积和质心高度对超级单体风暴不同发展阶段有很好的指示作用,结合监测可使冰雹预警提前量达12 min以上。此次过程超级单体造成的TBSS长度达到罕见的73 km,TBSS的出现、风暴顶辐散呈明显减弱趋势较降雹时间提前17 min以上。(3)冰雹、雷暴大风发生区域与冰雹云黑体亮温(TBB)、云顶温度(CTT)、云顶高度(CTH)、云顶气压(CTP)梯度大值区对应较好。结合雷达分析冰雹云发展过程发现,可将TBB≤-58℃,CTT≤-56℃,CTH≥13 km,CTP≤180 hPa且TBB≤-52℃面积持续增大作为FY-4A卫星秋季冰雹云特征参量的监测预警指标。(4)TBB最大递减率发生时间较降雹时间提前11 min以上。13.3 μm和10.8 μm通道亮温差对冰雹云的发展和减弱反应最为敏感,6.5 μm 和10.8 μm通道亮温差则在单站对流监测指标中对冰雹过境前后较其他亮温差反应敏感。
Abstract:In order to improve the monitoring and early warning capabilities for autumn hail, based on the dual-polarization radar and FY-4A satellite data, this paper analyzed a rare autumn severe hail process that occurred in Hunan Province in November 2023, and discussed its early warning characteristics. The findings are as follows: (1) The severe hail process was produced by supercell hailstorms. In the hail stage, the bottom of the strong echo center with horizontal reflectivity factor ZH ≥65 dBz was close to the ground, the correlation coefficient (CC) was lower than 0.9, the specific differential phase (KDP) was a cavity, and the differential reflectivity factor (ZDR) was -3-0 dB. These corresponded to the condition for the fall of large hailstone with diameter ≥ 5 cm, and matched with the observation. The rise and fall of the ZDR column can characterize the strengthening and weakening of updraft, and the ZDR with CC can identify three body scatter signature (TBSS) and side lobe characteristics. (2) The area of strong echo and the height of centroid were good indicators for different development stages of supercell. Combined with monitoring, the lead time of early warning of hail can be improved by more than 12 min. During this severe hail process, the length of TBSS caused by the supercell reached 73 km which is rarely seen. The emergence of TBSS and the divergence of the storm top showed a significant weakening trend, which was 17 min more earlier than the occurrence time of hail. (3) Hail and thunderstorm gale appeared in areas with large gradients of hail cloud blackbody brightness temperature (TBB), cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud top height (CTH), and cloud top pressure (CTP). TBB≤-58℃, CTT≤-56℃, CTH≥13 km, CTP≤180 hPa and the continuous increase of TBB≤-52℃ area can be used as monitoring and early warning indicators of the characteristic parameters of autumn hail cloud by FY-4A satellite. (4) The TBB maximum lapse rate can provide at least 11 min of advance warning for impending hail. The brightness temperature difference of 13.3 μm and 10.8 μm channel is the most sensitive to the development and weakening of hail clouds. The brightness temperature difference of 6.5 μm and 10.8 μm channels is more sensitive to the related conditions before and after the hail passes through the hit area than other brightness temperature differences among the single-station convection monitoring indicators.
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基金项目:湖南省自然科学基金重大项目(2021JC0009)、湖南省创新发展专项重点专项(CXFZ2023-ZDZX05)、湖南省气象局2022年重点课题(XQKJ22A003)和风云卫星应用先行计划(FY-APP-2022.0605)共同资助
引用文本:
杨湘婧,唐明晖,袁韬,兰明才,彭听听,2025.基于双偏振雷达和FY-4A卫星资料的一次湖南秋季强冰雹预警特征分析[J].气象,51(1):68-84.
YANG Xiangjing,TANG Minghui,YUAN Tao,LAN Mingcai,PENG Tingting,2025.Analysis on Early Warning Characteristics of an Autumn Severe Hail in Hunan Province Based on Dual-Polarization Radar and FY-4A Satellite Data[J].Meteor Mon,51(1):68-84.