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投稿时间：2024-04-27 修订日期：2024-09-29
投稿时间：2024-04-27 修订日期：2024-09-29
中文摘要: 利用全国2374个站点的逐日气温和降水资料、NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料和Hadley中心的海温资料，研究了2024年2月华东和华中大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害成因和可预报性。结果表明：2024年2月上旬和下旬这两次大范围低温雨雪冰冻天气过程，发生地区重叠度高，冰雪灾害严重；影响两次过程的副热带和中高纬环流系统配置较为一致，西北太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）稳定偏强和偏西，西伯利亚高压、南支槽和西北太平洋反气旋阶段性同步偏强，形成较强的协同作用，西伯利亚高压增强导致冷空气南下，副高、南支槽和西北太平洋反气旋同步增强则为华东和华中提供了充沛的水汽条件；2023年5月至2024年4月赤道中东太平洋地区发生了一次中等强度的El Nino事件，冬季热带印度洋和热带北大西洋海温异常偏暖，三大洋海温异常共同导致了副高持续偏强，也有利于西北太平洋反气旋的阶段性发展和增强，为2月的两次过程提供了充沛的水汽条件；次季节模式对两次过程的预报时效在1～2周左右，起报时间在2周以上时，目前模式无法准确预测欧亚中高纬环流系统的异常特征，导致对两次过程的预测能力较低。
中文关键词: 低温雨雪冻雨，El Nino，成因，次季节可预报性
Abstract:The causes and predictability of the high-impact large-scale cryogenic freezing rain and snow weather (CFRSW) in East China and Central China in February 2024 are investigated with the daily temperature and precipitation data from 2374 stations, the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric circulation reanalysis data and the HadISST data. The results show that the two CFRSW processes occurred in China in early and late February 2024, and the overlap of the disaster-hit regions was high so that East China and Central China suffered the most serious freezing rain and snow disaster. The subtropical and mid-high latitude circulation system configurations that impacted the two CFRSW processes were more consistent, the Northwest Pacific subtropical high was stronger and more westward. Moreover, the Siberian high, the South Branch trough and the Northwest Pacific anticyclone were stronger in the same period, forming a strong synergistic effect. The enhancement of the Siberian high led to cold air southward, and the synchronization of the enhancement of South Branch trough and western North Pacific anticyclone provided abundant water vapor conditions for East China and Central China. A moderate-intensity El Nino event occurred in the equatorial east-central Pacific from May 2023 to April 2024. In addition, the tropical Indian Ocean and the tropical North Atlantic were abnormally warm in winter. The abnormal SST of the three oceans jointly led to the continuous strengthening of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high. This was conductive to the periodic development and enhancement of the anticyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, and provided abundant water vapor conditions for the two CFRSW processes in February 2024. The predictability of the sub-seasonal model for the two processes is about 1-2 weeks ahead of time, and the prediction skill within 1 week is relatively high. When the prediction is advanced by more than 2 weeks, the model is unable to accurately predict the anomalous characteristics of the Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation system, resulting in lower predictive ability for the two processes.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2023YFC3007700）、国家电网有限公司总部科技项目（5200-202423383A-3-3-ZX、5200-202323473A-3-2-ZN）、中国气象局创新发展专项（CXFZ2023J002、CXFZ2024J023）和湖北省自然科学基金项目（2022CFD014）共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 赵俊虎 | 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室，国家气候中心，北京 100081 |
| 赵语欣 | 南京信息工程大学龙山书院，南京 210044 |
| 贾小龙 | 中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室，国家气候中心，北京 100081 |
| 张涵 | 中山大学大气科学学院，珠海 519087 |
| 熊开国 | 武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074 |
| 曾宇星 | 湖南省气候中心，长沙 410000 |
引用文本：
赵俊虎,赵语欣,贾小龙,张涵,熊开国,曾宇星,2025.2024年2月华东和华中大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害的成因和可预报性分析[J].气象,51(1):17-29.
ZHAO Junhu,ZHAO Yuxin,JIA Xiaolong,ZHANG Han,XIONG Kaiguo,ZENG Yuxing,2025.Causes and Predictability of the High-Impact Large-Scale Cryogenic Freezing Rain and Snow Weather in East China and Central China in February 2024[J].Meteor Mon,51(1):17-29.
赵俊虎,赵语欣,贾小龙,张涵,熊开国,曾宇星,2025.2024年2月华东和华中大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害的成因和可预报性分析[J].气象,51(1):17-29.
ZHAO Junhu,ZHAO Yuxin,JIA Xiaolong,ZHANG Han,XIONG Kaiguo,ZENG Yuxing,2025.Causes and Predictability of the High-Impact Large-Scale Cryogenic Freezing Rain and Snow Weather in East China and Central China in February 2024[J].Meteor Mon,51(1):17-29.
