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投稿时间:2024-12-12 修订日期:2025-07-04
投稿时间:2024-12-12 修订日期:2025-07-04
中文摘要: 京津冀地区暖季降水的短临预报困难的关键制约之一在于大气动力参数廓线缺失、降水前信号不明。本研究利用京津冀地区2023-2024年暖季(4-9月)风廓线雷达资料,组网反演关键动力参数廓线,分析了强对流触发前动力场演变特征,构建了强对流触发前信号判别指标。结果表明:强对流触发前,动力场表现为低层辐合、高层辐散的垂直上升运动配置。降水前30min内,持续加强的辐合上升运动有利于强对流发生。在统计的763次强降水事件中,强对流触发前信号判别指标能够有效识别出强降水事件,识别准确率为72.4%,为定量分析京津冀地区强对流早期预警提供重要技术参考。
中文关键词: 京津冀地区,强对流触发,风廓线雷达,辐合上升
Abstract:One of the key constraints on the difficulty of short-range forecasting of warm-season precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the lack of atmospheric dynamic parameter profiles and the unknown pre-precipitation signal. In this study, we analyzed the evolution of the dynamical field before the trigger of strong convection by using the dynamical parameter profiles inverted from the wind profile radar (RWP) mesoscale network in the warm season (April-September) of 2023-2024 and constructed the horizontal convergence intensity index before the trigger of strong convection. The results show that, before the trigger convection, the dynamical field is characterized by a vertical upward motion configuration with low-level convergence and high-level divergence. During the 30 min before precipitation, the continuously enhanced convergent and upward motion favors the occurrence of strong convection. Among 763 strong precipitation events, the horizontal convergence intensity index was able to effectively identify the strong precipitation events with an identification accuracy of 72.4%. This study develops a quantitative discrimination technique of strong convective precursor signals from RWP mesoscale network, which provides an important reference for quantitatively analyzing the early warning of strong convection in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region strong convective trigger wind profile radar convergence and upward motion.
文章编号:202412120309 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局大气探测重点开放实验室课题(2023KLAS02M),第二批中国气象局科技项目“揭榜挂帅”《京津冀强对流天气触发短临预警产品研制》(CMAJBGS202307) 和中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室开放课题(2023LABL-B06)共同资助
作者 | 单位 | 地址 |
杨荣芳* | 河北省气象技术装备中心 | 河北省石家庄市体育南大街178号河北省气象服务中心 |
Author Name | Affiliation | Address |
Yangrongfang | Hebei Meteorological Technology and Equipment Center | 河北省石家庄市体育南大街178号河北省气象服务中心 |
引用文本:
Yangrongfang,0.Observational analysis of precursor signals from the wind profile radar mesoscale network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Yangrongfang,0.Observational analysis of precursor signals from the wind profile radar mesoscale network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Yangrongfang,0.Observational analysis of precursor signals from the wind profile radar mesoscale network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Meteor Mon,():-.
Yangrongfang,0.Observational analysis of precursor signals from the wind profile radar mesoscale network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Meteor Mon,():-.