###
气象:2024,50(12):1495-1508
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
2015—2023年江西雷暴大风特征分析
曹倩,郭建平,孙玉萍,雷星宇,薛谌彬
(江西省气象科学研究所,南昌 330096; 气候变化风险与气象灾害防御江西省重点实验室,南昌 330096; 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081; 华东区域相控阵天气雷达应用联合实验室,上海 200030; 南昌市气象局,南昌 330096)
Analysis on the Characteristics of Thunderstorm Gale in Jiangxi Province During 2015-2023
CAO Qian,GUO Jianping,SUN Yuping,LEI Xingyu,XUE Chenbin
(Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanchang 330096; Key Laboratory of Climate Change Risk and Meteorological Disaster Prevention of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330096; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; East China Phased Array Weather Radar Application Joint Laboratory, Shanghai 200030; Nanchang Meteorological Bureau, Nanchang 330096)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 55次   下载 41
投稿时间:2024-06-14    修订日期:2024-10-15
中文摘要: 利用江西2015—2023年区域自动气象观测站地面逐小时观测资料、地闪资料以及天气雷达资料,给出了江西雷暴大风的总体时空分布特征,结合ERA5再分析资料,分析雷暴大风发生前的大气环境特征。结果表明:江西雷暴大风集中出现在春夏季,雷暴大风的季节变化有明显的南北差异,表现为江西中北部春季雷暴大风发生的频数仅略多于夏季,而江西南部夏季雷暴大风发生的频数超过春季的2倍。雷暴大风呈现明显的日变化,其发生最密集时段为14—20时(北京时),江西中北部傍晚至夜间雷暴大风发生频率远高于江西南部。江西雷暴大风发生前的热力、动力和水汽特征存在显著时空差异。在同一季节江西中北部的动力作用总体强于江西南部,而南部热力和水汽作用要强于中北部;夏季热力和水汽作用强于春季,春季动力作用强于夏季;不同时段雷暴大风发生所需要的对流不稳定能量有差异,但均在不稳定层结环境中,午后雷暴大风多发生在较小垂直风切变环境中,而深夜时段则多发生在强垂直风切变环境中,此外白天上干下湿结构比夜间显著。因此,按季节分区域、分时段设定环境参数阈值,对于雷暴大风预报预警的指导意义更大。江西中北部春季当0~6 km垂直风切变(Shear6)分布于30~33 m·s-1,即使最佳对流有效位能(MUCAPE)仅介于0~500 J·kg-1和大气可降水量(PW)介于43~48 mm,仍要警惕雷暴大风的发生。夏季预报雷暴大风时需关注MUCAPE和PW,尤其江西南部雷暴大风更集中发生在很弱的中层垂直风切变环境中,当PW>60 mm、MUCAPE>1500 J·kg-1时,即使Shear6分布在5~8 m·s-1 ,仍需考虑雷暴大风的发生。任何区域在不同季节,PW的增加对雷暴大风的发生都很重要,需重点关注其变化。
Abstract:The spatio-temporal distribution of thunderstorm gales (TGs) in Jiangxi is comprehensively analyzed based on hourly observation data of automatic weather stations, cloud-to-ground lightning observations and weather radar data in Jiangxi Province from 2015 to 2023. The ERA5 reanalysis data are further used to investigate the atmospheric environment before the onset of TGs. The results show that the TGs in Jiangxi occur mainly in spring and summer, with significant seasonal variations and differences in the north-central part and the south. The frequency of TGs occurring in spring is only slightly higher than in summer in north-central Jiangxi, but the frequency of TGs in summer is more than twice of that in spring in the south of Jiangxi. TGs have obvious diurnal variation with the highest occurrence frequency from 14:00 BT to 20:00 BT. The frequency of TGs from evening into night in north-central Jiangxi is much higher than in the southern part. The thermodynamic, dynamic and water vapor characteristics of TGs are significantly different in spatio-temporal distributions. In the same season, the dynamic effect is generally stronger in north-central Jiangxi than in the southern part, while the thermodynamic and water vapor effects are stronger in the south than in north-central part. The thermodynamic and water vapor effects are stronger in summer than in spring, but the dynamic effect in spring is stronger. The convective instability energy required for TGs varies by time periods, but all occur under unstable conditions. TGs occur more frequently under low vertical wind shear in the afternoon and also in the deep night with strong vertical wind shear conditions. Besides, the upper-level dry and low-level wet structure in the daytime is more pronounced than at night. Therefore, it is crucial to set ambient parameter thresholds by season, region and time period, in order to provide more accurate guidance on TGs forecast and warning. When 0-6 km vertical wind shear (Shear6) is large enough and distributed in the range of 30-33 m·s-1 in spring in north-central Jiangxi, it is imperative to be alert to the advent of TGs even if most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE) is only in the range of 0-500 J·kg-1 and precipitable water (PW) only in the range of 43-48 mm. To accurately forecast the occurrence of TGs in summer, it is essential to pay attention to the MUCAPE and PW, and especially in the south of Jiangxi, TGs tend to occur with higher frequency under weak mid-level vertical wind shear. When PW>60 mm and MUCAPE>1500 J·kg-1, even though Shear6 is minimal and confined to a range of 5-8 m·s-1, it is necessary to contemplate the potential for TGs. The increase of water vapor is important for the occurrence of TGs in different regions during different seasons. Therefore, changes in PW should be focused on in the operation of forecasting TGs.
文章编号:     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金委气象联合基金项目(U2142209)、江西省气象局重点项目(JX2022Z07)和江西省气象科学研究所自筹经费科研项目共同资助
引用文本:
曹倩,郭建平,孙玉萍,雷星宇,薛谌彬,2024.2015—2023年江西雷暴大风特征分析[J].气象,50(12):1495-1508.
CAO Qian,GUO Jianping,SUN Yuping,LEI Xingyu,XUE Chenbin,2024.Analysis on the Characteristics of Thunderstorm Gale in Jiangxi Province During 2015-2023[J].Meteor Mon,50(12):1495-1508.