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投稿时间：2022-11-04 修订日期：2023-12-26
投稿时间：2022-11-04 修订日期：2023-12-26
中文摘要: 以四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区为研究区，基于气象条件对腋芽萌发期再生稻生长发育的影响机理，采用结构方程模型探明了腋芽萌发的影响因素、影响路径及影响强度。进一步结合隶属函数和层次分析法，构建了再生稻腋芽萌发气象适宜度模型，并分析了1981—2021年研究区腋芽萌发期气象影响因素及气象适宜度的变化特征。结果表明：气温、空气湿度、降水是四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区腋芽萌发的关键影响因素，基于以上因素的气象适宜度模型能较好地评价再生稻腋芽萌发期的气象影响。1981—2021年研究区气温适宜度、空气湿度适宜度及综合气象适宜度均呈下降趋势，降水适宜度没有表现出明显的变化趋势。气温适宜度、空气湿度适宜度及综合气象适宜度总体呈“西高东低”的空间分布特征，降水适宜度则表现为“东西高、中部低”。1981—2021年研究区气温上升趋势与空气湿度下降趋势显著，导致致害高温（日平均气温≥32℃）积温和致害低湿（日平均相对湿度≤65％）日数明显增加，这是再生稻腋芽萌发期气象适宜度总体呈下降趋势的诱因。
中文关键词: 再生稻，气象适宜度，腋芽，结构方程模型，高温伏旱
Abstract:Taking the high temperature and summer drought areas of ratoon rice in the eastern part of Sichuan Basin as the study area, and based on the mechanism of the influence of meteorological conditions on the growth and development of ratoon rice during the axillary bud germination stage, this article explores the impact factors, pathways, and degrees of axillary bud germination with a structural equation model. Furthermore, combined with the membership function and analytic hierarchy process, a meteorological suitability model for axillary bud germination of ratoon rice is constructed, and the meteorological impact factors and changes in meteorological suitability of axillary bud germination stage of ratoon rice in the study area from 1981 to 2021 are analyzed. The results indicate that temperature, air humidity, and precipitation are key impact factors for axillary bud germination in the high temperature and summer drought areas of ratoon rice in eastern Sichuan Basin. The meteorological suitability model based on these factors can effectively evaluate the meteorological impact of axillary bud germination of ratoon rice. From 1981 〖JP2〗to 2021, the temperature suitability, air humidity suitability, and synthetical meteoro-〖JP〗logical suitability all showed a downward trend, while the precipitation suitability did not have a significant change trend. In general, the spatial distributions of temperature suitability, air humidity suitability, and synthetical meteorological suitability were characterized by “high in the west and low in the east”, while the precipitation suitability was distributed in the pattern of “high in the east and west, and low in the middle”. From 1981 to 2021, there was a significant upward trend in temperature 〖JP2〗and a downward trend in air humidity in the study area,〖JP〗 resulting in significant increases in the accumulated temperature causing harmful high temperatures (daily mean temperature ≥32℃) and the days of harmful low humidity (daily average relative humidity ≤65%). This is major cause for the overall downward trend in meteorological suitability of axillary bud germination stage of ratoon rice.
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基金项目:重庆市自然科学基金项目（CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0442）、科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目（2013GB24160637）共同资助
引用文本：
罗孳孳,方立魁,武强,韩旭,李月臣,朱玉涵,陈欢,张悦,阳园燕,2024.四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区腋芽萌发期气象适宜度[J].气象,50(4):461-474.
LUO Zizi，FANG Likui，WU Qiang，HAN Xu，LI Yuechen，ZHU Yuhan，CHEN Huan，ZHANG Yue，YANG Yuanyan,2024.Meteorological Suitability of Axillary Bud Germination Stage in the High Temperature and Summer Drought Areas of Ratoon Rice in Eastern Sichuan Basin[J].Meteor Mon,50(4):461-474.
罗孳孳,方立魁,武强,韩旭,李月臣,朱玉涵,陈欢,张悦,阳园燕,2024.四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区腋芽萌发期气象适宜度[J].气象,50(4):461-474.
LUO Zizi，FANG Likui，WU Qiang，HAN Xu，LI Yuechen，ZHU Yuhan，CHEN Huan，ZHANG Yue，YANG Yuanyan,2024.Meteorological Suitability of Axillary Bud Germination Stage in the High Temperature and Summer Drought Areas of Ratoon Rice in Eastern Sichuan Basin[J].Meteor Mon,50(4):461-474.
